INDIANAPOLIS — Let’s talk about the strangest standoff I can remember in quite some time covering the league.
NFL Scouting Combine week is winding down from a media perspective, which is always an ironic transition. The reporters that flock here to network and glean information typically begin bailing out of town on Thursday and Friday, which is the exact time the on-field workouts that are the reason for the event — on paper, anyway — get started at Lucas Oil Stadium.
There’ll be time to worry about the incoming draft class later. Because in the conference rooms, coffee shops and bars of Indianapolis, there’s interest in only one name: Matthew Stafford.
The veteran quarterback has become the biggest figure in the NFL this week, as the Rams have granted him permission to speak with other teams about his market and what his services might be worth. That, in turn, has set off a storm of speculation about who might be willing to not just pay Stafford a hefty new contract, but trade serious capital to acquire him from Los Angeles.
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It’s all very intriguing, as trade speculation tends to be. It’s also downright confusing, because for the life of me I can’t figure out how it makes sense.
Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised Stafford has become the first and most impactful domino waiting to fall in this 2025 offseason. He told me himself during Super Bowl week that he had decided to play this upcoming season, and he even acknowledged that he wasn’t certain where he’d suit up. Those are the realities of turning 37 earlier this month and having a 2025 salary cap hit of roughly $49.7 million on the books.
Still, as recently as last week, it felt impossible that something wouldn’t get done to keep Stafford in L.A. Starting quarterbacks typically change teams only when their salaries outpace their performance, or when the path toward contention appears bleak.
Neither of those describe Stafford, who battled through injury to post his best passer rating in three years and guide a young Rams squad to the playoffs. And, as we all remember, Stafford had the Rams 13 yards from potentially hosting the NFC Championship Game before Jalen Carter delivered the most clutch play of the postseason to keep the eventual champion Eagles’ season alive.
So, if the Rams were a play or two away from another legit run at the Super Bowl, is money a good enough reason to chase off their quarterback? Monday, I didn’t think so. Today, I’m not so sure.
That’s what happens when you let quarterback-needy teams into the mix, as the Rams have done by opening the door for those conversations.
At the time, it felt like sound business strategy to come up with an acceptable number for a new contract. The Ravens did something similar a couple of years ago by tagging Lamar Jackson, allowing other teams to set the parameters for a long-term deal that he ultimately signed in Baltimore. Better to let someone else strike up an offer you can match than bid against yourself.
Unless that external offer blows away the expectations, which could very well happen here. The league revealed Thursday that the salary cap has jumped another $24 million (to a record $279.2 million) for the coming season. We’ve written countless words already about how disappointing this draft class of incoming quarterbacks is compared to recent years.
In a world where nine quarterbacks are making north of $50 million per year, it makes sense if a desperate team throws the bank at a veteran quarterback capable of leading a Super Bowl run — which is exactly what’s happening, as teams like the Giants and Raiders have expressed “significant interest” in Stafford. If either team is willing to pay a salary that would blow past his current average of $40 million, the Rams might have no choice but to trade him.
With all that context in mind, I’m just not sure how we got here.
Stafford has delivered everything the Rams could have possibly dreamed of when they acquired him in a blockbuster quarterback swap four years ago. He has won 34 games, thrown 95 touchdowns, reached the playoffs three times and hung a Super Bowl banner for a franchise that desperately needed to find a foothold in a crowded L.A. market. He’s also in the twilight of his career and not in much of a position to start over.
Don’t get me wrong, Stafford would make a difference in New York or Las Vegas. It’s very fun to imagine him throwing to Malik Nabers or Brock Bowers, and both teams have a top-10 draft pick they’d (presumably) refuse to part with in any trade. The Raiders and Giants could make themselves competitive with Stafford in a hurry.
Is it enough, though? Can the Giants truly remake themselves from the worst team in the NFC to a contender before Stafford’s career winds down? Is Stafford really going to be the reason the Raiders survive the quarterback arms race that is the AFC?
Are either of those situations an improvement on Stafford’s current situation, with an ascending Rams team that could be a piece or two away from another championship run?
It feels unlikely, especially with the clock ticking on Stafford’s career. And as long as we’re doing a deep dive on this, it’s worth mentioning the legacy aspect of it.
Plenty of people think Stafford already has a case for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He doesn’t have the All-Pro or even Pro Bowl nods you’d expect from an enshrinee, but he’s 10th all time in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, and he does have one all-important Super Bowl win. Another strong season or two could see him climb as high as fifth in yards and sixth in touchdowns. Another championship would make him just the 14th quarterback to win multiple Super Bowls. That, combined with his individual numbers, feels like enough to reach the Hall.
Making the wrong choice here would have ramifications that last a lot longer than how many yards Stafford throws for in 2025.
That applies just as much to the Rams, of course. Not that general manager Les Snead and head coach Sean McVay have ever allowed perception to drive their decision-making, but I just don’t see the path to improvement in the short term without Stafford.
The draft is a non-starter this year, between the Rams picking No. 26 overall and the lack of top-end quarterback talent. Free agency isn’t inspiring.
It’s hard to imagine the Rams ponying up to pay Sam Darnold if they’re unwilling to do the same for Stafford. After Darnold, the best options available in March are either polarizing (Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, maybe Kirk Cousins) or uninspiring (Justin Fields, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones). With choices like that at the top of the board, it makes sense that people are floating 33-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo, Stafford’s backup last year, as a possible bridge quarterback to a new future.
My question is, who the hell wants to build a bridge to the future when the current team could be one of the league’s best in 2025?
This would all make a lot more sense if the Rams were still paying the price for their aggressive approach toward that Super Bowl LVI championship, but they’re not. They’ve drafted like maniacs the past three years, and their finances are in fine shape. Nobody’s saying the Rams need to push their chips in the way they did several years ago, but this is a team that’s ready to win right now.
Stafford’s age is a concern, and he’s battled injuries often during his time in L.A., but he makes the Rams a contender in 2025. That doesn’t feel as true if it’s Garoppolo — or any of the other realistic alternatives — under center instead.
Money, as usual, is the main motivator here. Stafford has outplayed his current deal, and his cap numbers are untenable. It makes sense if the Rams don’t want him to reset the quarterback market, but surely there’s a number the two sides can agree on.
Stafford knows from experience how it feels to have gaudy career earnings with none of the success to show for it. Snead and McVay know how it feels to desperately need a QB who comes through in the postseason.
Both sides had better think long and hard about all that before a trade is made that doesn’t really work for either of them.
David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.
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