What Tyreek Hill’s decline in production means for Dolphins in 2024 and beyond

If anyone was going to save the Miami Dolphins‘ offense, it was going to have to be Tyreek Hill.

Tua Tagovailoa went on IR with a concussion. That was the time for Hill and, to a lesser degree, Jaylen Waddle to get this offense through Tua’s injury. Because — like it or not — Tagovailoa was absolutely coming back. And he wanted to make the playoffs.

But by now, we’ve seen what has happened to Miami.

Hill is having a pedestrian season. And so it’s no surprise that the Dolphins are 2-6. Their playoff probability is down to 4%. Miami’s season is dead. The Dolphins weren’t buyers at the trade deadline, and now the front office is going to have to figure out what to do with this team in 2025.

Nothing has worked on offense in 2024 — before and after Tua’s concussion.

This isn’t to say that Tagovailoa’s IR stint didn’t impact Miami’s season. It did. But the QB1’s return hasn’t righted the ship. The Dolphins were 1-1 with Tua to start the season, then 1-3 without him. But they’re 0-2 since his return, bringing them to 2-6 on the season.

Again, the surprising constant: Tyreek Hill’s statistics have been … fine.

We all know just how bad Miami’s offense gets without Tua. In recent years, his concussion-related absences have led to huge issues.

Since 2022, with Tagovailoa at QB1, the Dolphins are 20-14 and have averaged 386.2 total net yards per game and 279.1 passing yards per game. Hill has averaged 6.7 catches, 100 receiving yards and .6 touchdowns. 

Without Tagovailoa since 2022, the Dolphins are 2-6 and have averaged 310.8 total net yards per game and 204.8 passing yards per game. Hill averaged 5.6 catches, 69 yards and zero touchdowns.

This time around, the decline was instant. Hill led the team with just 40 yards in Week 3, Tagovailoa’s first game away, a 24-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

“Give the Seahawks credit, they did some things to try to nullify him,” head coach Mike McDaniel said after the game. “But this team needs him. He was prepared. He was ready. He had the appropriate energy. So, got to do a better job getting him the ball.”

It has been rare to see Hill elevate the offense in the absence of Tagovailoa. And there’s a case to be made that Hill should be able to elevate the offense.

Over the years, it’s been a mixed bag for star wideouts getting production — let alone wins — without their top QB. Calvin Johnson earned the nickname “Megatron” for a reason. The Lions wideout put up 1,120 yards and 12 touchdowns in the season when backup QBs Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton were the starters for 13 games. 

Larry Fitzgerald never seemed to care which quarterback fed him the ball in Arizona. In a season when Blaine Gabbert and Stanton started nine games, Fitzgerald put up 1,156 yards and six touchdowns. In 2011, Fitzgerald had 1,411 yards and eight touchdowns, powered by Kevin Kolb and John Skelton. 

In that godawful 2011 season when the Colts didn’t have Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne still managed 75 catches for 960 yards and four touchdowns. 

This year, Tyreek Hill has 34 catches for 446 yards and one touchdown, which means he is on pace for 72 catches, 948 receiving yards and two touchdowns — less than what Wayne did with Curtis Painter in one fewer game.

Point is, if Hill were truly a generational talent, he’d probably lift the offense, even in his quarterback’s absence. But historically, he hasn’t. 

That’s raises the argument of whether Hill is 1) as transcendent as we thought, or 2) at 30, simply aging out of his peak.

The most concerning sign has been that, upon Tagovailoa’s return, we haven’t seen Hill’s numbers surge. In Tua’s first game back, Hill had six catches for 72 yards in a 28-27 loss to the Cardinals. He was spotted yelling on the sideline near McDaniel.

“I’m at a point in my life and a point in my career where the most important thing is to win ball games, and I feel like that makes up who I am — the person, the player, all of that,” he said a few days after the game. “I could care less — if the stats come, they come.”

McDaniel has argued that Hill’s contributions are showing up in other places. In that same Cardinals game (when, again, Hill seemed to be upset on the sideline), McDaniel effusively praised Hill.

“I think it was one of my favorite games Tyreek has had since I’ve been here,” he said. “And there are a lot of games that he’s had a ton of numbers, but what is required from one of your best players, making plays with and without the ball, he was such an impact player. He threw some of the best blocks.”

Did he now?

And is that why the Dolphins inked their 5-foot-10, 190-pound receiver to a three-year, $90 million deal? 

To block?

It’s a classic trope for coaches to praise a receiver’s blocking and ability to open things up for other players. But that’s not what the Dolphins need Hill to do. They need him to beat the double teams, which he has historically done at a staggering clip (which is why he is — or was? — special enough to earn $30 million a year).

Hill’s struggles are trickling down throughout the offense. Waddle is also on pace to have the worst season of his career with just 28 catches, 310 receiving yards and one touchdown. The Dolphins are trying and largely failing to run their passing offense through a third option, generally their running backs and tight end Jonnu Smith.

Even if Hill and Waddle pull their production out of a nosedive, it won’t really matter. They didn’t show up when it counted this season. They put themselves in an inescapable hole. The only consolation is that, if both wideouts do get back to elite form, there’s always next year. That’s probably a tiny consolation. But it’s better than the alternative.

The Dolphins would have huge problems if the offense looks like this for the rest of the year. If Miami remains mediocre — in part a product of its underperforming receivers — then the Dolphins will be in a bind. They’re on the hook for this core — Tagovailoa, Hill and Waddle — through 2026 after all three signed extensions this year. If the offense can’t go back to whooping defenses like at the beginning of 2023, then McDaniel might not be the coach in 2025.

Hill’s fall from greatness hasn’t just played a role in the Dolphins’ failed season. It casts doubt on Miami’s vision going forward.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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