Two years ago, in Super Bowl LVII, the Philadelphia Eagles gave the Kansas City Chiefs everything they had, and it still wasn’t enough. They lost their shot at a championship on a field goal in the final seconds and lost 38-35.
That game was the start of the Chiefs’ quest to become the first three-peat Super Bowl champions in NFL history.
And now the Eagles are back with a chance to stop it.
So can they? Here are five keys to victory for the Eagles when they take on the two-time defending champion Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday night in the Superdome in New Orleans:
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Lean heavily on Saquon Barkley — especially in the second half
It’s pretty obvious that Barkley, the 2,005-yard running back, is Philly’s best weapon and the biggest key to their hopes of winning a championship. But the Eagles and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore need to remember that — especially when it matters the most.
They tend to get into sequences where it looks like they’re trying to force their passing game into the equation. There’s definitely value in that, especially early. It can keep a blitz-heavy defense like the Chiefs off balance and it gives quarterback Jalen Hurts a chance to get into a rhythm.
But in the second half, they should lean into Barkley — heavily, and no matter what. This is what they’re built for. They have a big, strong offensive line that can bully a defense, especially when it starts getting tired. And Barkley is the kind of dynamic back with otherworldly moves who is a threat to break away when defenders are trying to catch their breath.
And here’s proof: If Barkley had sat out the first half of every game this season, the 1,245 yards he ran for in second halves would still have him ranked seventh overall on the NFL rushing charts. He also averaged 6.7 yards per carry in second halves — almost two full yards better than he did in firsts.
Some of the total is because the Eagles were often up — sometimes by a lot — after halftime. But the effectiveness is remarkable considering defenses knew who was getting the ball in those situations. That’s why the Eagles can’t be like the Ravens, who have shown a weird knack for abandoning the run in big games against the Chiefs. They have to remember who they are, especially late.
Have Jalen Hurts get the ball out of his hands fast
For an incredibly mobile quarterback who is one of the best runners in the league and plays behind the NFL’s most dominant offensive line, it’s crazy that Jalen Hurts has taken more sacks this season (38) than all but 11 quarterbacks in the league.
But there’s also an obvious reason: On average, he takes 3.21 seconds to throw the ball (per Pro Football Focus) — the highest number in the league.
That will play right into the hands of a Steve Spagnuolo defense that blitzes 34.9 percent of the time. Hurts hasn’t been terrible against the blitz. In fact, by one measure, since the bye week he’s had a 124.7 quarterback rating against the blitz (47 of 73, 648 yards, seven touchdowns, no interceptions). But even when there isn’t the blitz, holding the ball too long leads to issues. It’s why he has the second-most throwaway passes in the league.
If he can get the ball out fast, he’s got two dynamic receivers — A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith — who are terrific at getting open quickly and have the speed and moves to create big plays (though neither had much of an opportunity to do that this year). Tight end Dallas Goedert has that ability too, though he’s more about power than speed.
So Moore needs to find ways for Hurts to utilize those weapons fast. If he’s indecisive in the pocket, Spagnuolo’s defense is going to be like a shark circling chum.
Pressure Patrick Mahomes
Vic Fangio’s defense is designed to make sure the Eagles are keeping pass plays in front of them, which limits the big plays and the deep shots from opposing quarterbacks. But the Chiefs do have some speed at the receiver position — particularly with Xavier Worthy. They can cause trouble if Mahomes is given too much time.
Now, two years ago, the Eagles came into the Super Bowl with a near-historic pass rush that had 70 regular season sacks, and yet they barely touched Mahomes in that game (five hits, no sacks). That can’t happen again. The Eagles aren’t a high-pressure defense this time. They only had 41 sacks and pressured quarterbacks on 19.1 percent of their plays. But they do have players capable of getting to Mahomes — most notably defensive tackle Jalen Carter, and emerging edge rusher Nolan Smith (who has four sacks in three playoff games this year).
They just can’t let a quarterback like Mahomes sit there and pick them apart. They need to force him into quick throws or scrambles or just disrupt what he’s trying to do. There’s danger in that too, of course. But there’s more danger if he’s given space and time.
Keep a defensive shell on TE Travis Kelce
The Chiefs might have some speed at receiver, but their best and most dangerous weapon is still Kelce, even though he’s 35 and approaching the end of his career.
The Eagles were actually pretty good against tight ends this season. They only gave up 591 yards to tight ends, which was the lowest total in the NFL. Still, that’s not a guarantee that a tight end can’t go off on them. In the NFC Championship Game, Washington tight end Zach Ertz had 11 catches for 104 yards.
The problem with Kelce is he’s Mahomes’ safety valve. When a play goes off-script, Mahomes relies on him heavily. Kelce leads the NFL with 61 catches, 933 yards and 10 touchdowns on “scramble plays” since 2018, according to NextGen Stats. That’s at least in part because Mahomes is a threat to run, which can draw Kelce’s coverage away.
And that’s why the best way to defend him is with a bracket — a linebacker or corner on him tightly, or underneath, and a safety hovering behind him, nearby. This way if Mahomes runs and draws one defender in, there’s another defender there to limit any Kelce damage.
Sure, that could open things for Mahomes’ receivers. But that’s OK. The better strategy is to take the best player away.
Be aggressive on the Kansas City half of the field
This will depend on the situation, of course, but in most situations when they have a choice between a field goal try or going for it on fourth-and-short, Nick Sirianni’s first instinct should be to go for it. And that’s especially true if the field goal they’re staring at is long.
Simply put, this has not been a good year for Eagles kicker Jake Elliott. He only connected on 77.8 percent of his field goals, which is the second-worst percentage of his career. He’s been particularly terrible on field goals of 50 yards or more, making just 1 of 8, which includes a miss on his only shot so far in the playoffs.
So if they’re at the Chiefs’ 32 or so, they have to assume Elliott is going to miss. Honestly, they should be at least wary of any kick longer than 45 yards. They can’t count on him, which is why they’d be so much smarter to rely on their league-leading offense, even if it’s 4th and a little longer than they’d like.
This is not likely to be a game won by field goals anyway. Both defenses are strong, but both offenses are dangerous too. So don’t get bogged down in analytics. Just understand that Elliott is shaky. If there’s a choice, going for it is almost always going to make more sense.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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