This is it.
We’re down to the last football game this NFL season, and it should be a doozy between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in New Orleans.
Shameless plug — you can watch Super Bowl LIX on FOX.
I’ve got five bets to make on Super Bowl LIX. Let’s hope they all go as well as Kyle Juszczyk’s props did last year. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-teamers. These will always be the plays I love the most.
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Let’s go to work.
2024 Record: (50-46, -0.4 units)
Chiefs (-1, O/U 48.5) vs. Eagles
Let’s start with the first quarter.
I believe in these defenses — and defensive coordinators — early.
Vic Fangio and Steve Spagnuolo are two of the best in the business and I expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses early.
Don’t discount all that extra time to prepare. Slice the game in quarters and go “Under” 9.5 points in the first frame.
Acceptable scores include 0-0, 3-0, 3-3, 6-0, 6-3 and 7-0.
7-2 works, too.
Why Jalen Carter will eat, and Saquon Barkley will shine the brightest in SBLIX
Elsewhere, I circled two tight ends in the game and Travis Kelce isn’t one of them. I have no idea what to do with his props this weekend after he exploded against Houston and vanished against Buffalo.
Beats me.
That said, Noah Gray probably doesn’t have a big target share on Sunday. The Chiefs have used him less and less as they’ve gotten healthier, and we all know this is Kelce’s stage — a lot like it was Rob Gronkowski’s stage in New England.
I’m shorting Gray’s numbers on catches and receiving yards.
If you’re looking for a longer shot, Dallas Goedert’s price is pretty nice to score a touchdown. BetMGM is offering the best number in the market at +333.
The Chiefs can be beaten from the tight end position and if Goedert wins some one-on-one battles or breaks a tackle, he could easily reach paydirt.
As for the side, I bet Philadelphia late last week at +1.5. Yes, it’s still good at +1. Multiple Las Vegas bookmakers told me and Chris “The Bear” Fallica there’s a strong chance the Eagles go off the favorite. We’ll see. Philly’s roster is better across the board and the offensive and defensive lines are elite.
The Eagles have the blueprint to run all over Kansas City. Let’s hope Nick Sirianni and Kellen Moore lean on Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts in the running game and that they avoid the big turnovers.
I don’t love betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but what’s done is done.
Fly Eagles fly.
PICK: Eagles (+1) to lose by fewer than 1 point, or win outright
PICK: First quarter Under 9.5 points (-110)
PICK: Noah Gray (-120) Under 12.5 yards
PICK: Noah Gray (-135) Under 1.5 catches
PICK: Dallas Goedert (+333) anytime touchdown scorer
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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