Russell Wilson to J.J. McCarthy: Breaking down every QB change around NFL

Everyone seems to know that Aaron Rodgers is going to land with the Pittsburgh Steelers — everyone except Aaron Rodgers.

But Russell Wilson and the New York Giants didn’t wait. They agreed on a deal on Tuesday that should pave the path to Wilson as QB1. And it stands to reason that Wilson made that decision under the assumption that Rodgers was taking over for the Steelers.

RELATED: Giants add a QB, reportedly agreeing to deal with Russell Wilson

Once Rodgers finds his home for 2025, it might leave a team desperate enough to trade for Kirk Cousins. Maybe that’s the Cleveland Browns, who had met with Wilson. The Tennessee Titans will draft a quarterback (*cough* Cam Ward *cough*). And the game will be over. The missing pieces will likely be Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart, a pair of likely first-round picks who will compete but not necessarily win starting jobs somewhere.

It’s a matter of time before we see the final pieces fall into place. In the meantime, let’s dive into the QB carousel, breaking down each move.

Giants: Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston
The deals: For Wilson: one year, $21 million ($10.5 million guaranteed). For Winston: two years, $8 million

What’s to like? 

Wilson: The strongest selling point for Wilson’s success might be Malik Nabers, who is a special talent at wideout — and one uniquely skilled at creating downfield separation and fighting for 50-50 balls. So, yes, here come more of Russ’ moon balls. In a similar way, George Pickens and Wilson did well together in Pittsburgh. I think something similar will evolve between Wilson and Nabers. I’m sort of afraid that might be the only selling point for Wilson’s success in New York, however.

Winston: He has experience starting and serving as a backup, which is why he’s a nice addition, particularly at such a modest price point. He has the ability to play extremely well for spurts, though we’ve yet to see him sustain success for an entire season. 

What’s not to like? 

Wilson: It’s not totally clear how much the 36-year-old Wilson has left in the tank. His time in Denver was a catastrophe and a total waste of resources for the Broncos. But his time with the Steelers was perfectly fine: an upswing of momentum from rock bottom. Wilson is mentally tough. He’s always optimistic. He’s a good person for New York, which tends to grind away at mentally weak quarterbacks. But ultimately, he can’t win on mentality alone. He’ll need a team and scheme that can highlight his strengths. That puts the ball in Brian Daboll’s court to get back to the quality of coaching we saw from him in 2022.

Winston: The interceptions — they’ll always be there.

What to expect: 

Wilson: He’s not totally out of the woods in terms of winning the starting job. A deal for up to $21 million and $10.5 million guaranteed is hardly starter money. It is, in fact, a fringe deal that could easily land him as a backup to a rookie. Deion Sanders said Tuesday that he hopes his son Shedeur lands in New York. The Giants’ plan is murky at best, but Wilson’s deal doesn’t tip their hand about draft plans. Both of these veteran deals indicate that New York could easily draft a quarterback and sit him for some of the season behind Wilson. My sense is that the Giants will draft a developmental QB on Day 2. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe makes plenty of sense.

Winston: He’ll back up Wilson and will only play if the QB1 gets hurt or completely loses form, akin to what happened in Denver.

Seahawks: Sam Darnold
The deal: three years, $100.5 million, $55 million guaranteed

What’s to like? 

The obvious question is: Why go through the structural changes to replace a QB? Seattle traded Geno Smith and signed Darnold. It’s a lot of movement to swap out prolific but not highly respected signal-callers.

The obvious answer is: The Seahawks think they’re getting more bang for their buck with Darnold.

In Seattle, Darnold will be compared to Smith. So let’s address that comparison right off the bat. Darnold is a strong-armed, athletic quarterback who is probably going to complete fewer passes but — if we take his 2024 film at face value — make bigger plays and fewer game-wrecking mistakes. Smith is the more efficient and accurate passer and can deliver surgical drives. Darnold is the splashier player, with a knack for explosives. 

So the Seahawks probably picked Darnold because they think he gives them a better chance in fourth quarters — pointing specifically to the fourth quarter of the Vikings’ 27-24 win over Seattle in Week 16, when Darnold closed the door on Smith & Co. Darnold had 34 big-time throws in 2024 while Smith had 28, per Pro Football Focus.

What’s not to like? 

Darnold may have won that game against the Seahawks, but it’s Smith who has the most fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives (17) over the past two seasons, more than even Patrick Mahomes (15) and Jalen Hurts (14).

Darnold finished with fewer interceptions than Smith, but he had substantially more turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. Darnold had a whopping 27; Smith had 18. In a sense, Darnold was luckier than Smith. And in more ways than one. Darnold’s circumstances in Minnesota were about as good as it gets for a QB. Coach Kevin O’Connell is the hottest name in the offensive ranks. Justin Jefferson is the league’s best receiver. Aaron Jones is one heck of a running back. It’s not quite like that in Seattle, which just cut Taylor Lockett and traded DK Metcalf. 

What to expect: 

It’s all adding up to a statistical regression for Darnold. 

It’s easy to imagine he’ll fail to meet expectations.

The Seahawks are rebuilding, whereas the Vikings were built to have Darnold succeed. Right now, quarterbacking is as much about the location as the player himself. And a guy like Darnold has yet to prove he has the talent and poise to elevate beyond his circumstances.

But! I recognize that coach Mike Macdonald has a plan. Here’s what I think it looks like.

Seattle, which wants to get back to the running game, will probably want to throw four or five fewer times per game while getting the same passing production. The Seahawks are clearly thinking that their offense is going to model itself after the Vikings’ unit from last season. That’s why Darnold is a good fit. He can let the ground game take center stage and then put the ball in the hands of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Noah Fant and, likely, another pass-catcher to be acquired.

It’s fair to point out, too, that Smith didn’t regress last season under Macdonald’s staff. So even if there’s turnover around a QB, the second-year coaching staff has a record of working with the guy to sustain his high-level performance.

Raiders: Geno Smith
The deal: three years, $75 million, $40 million guaranteed. (Smith also arrived in a trade for the 92nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.)

What’s to like? 

There’s no question that coach Pete Carroll can succeed with Smith. They’ve already done it in Seattle. Smith has Carroll (and his coaching staff) to thank for revitalizing his career. Smith is among the best point guards in the NFL, with an eye for finding the right matchup and the open receiver. We already know how that fits into Carroll’s identity schematically.

What’s not to like? 

The Raiders aren’t a talented team on offense. Las Vegas’ top receiver is Jakobi Meyers. The team’s top running back is Sincere McCormick. We’re a long way away from Week 1, but for a point guard like Smith, he won’t be finding many open receivers. His offensive line isn’t great, but it wasn’t all that awesome when he was in Seattle, either. The biggest point of concern is playmakers: How quickly can Carroll surround his QB with threats?

What to expect: 

The Raiders will draft a running back, maybe even Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, in the first round. But they could wait — this class is supposed to be freakishly loaded with backs. Las Vegas will find a receiver … or three. Veteran Amari Cooper is still out there. Until the Raiders bring in a supporting cast for Smith, however, the quarterback’s outlook will be fairly grim. The Raiders need to start making moves.

Jets: Justin Fields
The deal: two years, $40 million, $30 million guaranteed

What’s to like?

There were a lot of similarities in the tape between Jayden Daniels‘ first few games with the Commanders and Justin Fields’ first few games with the Steelers. This isn’t to say that Fields was about to emerge as one of the NFL’s most dangerous playmakers. But it is to say that the Steelers put Fields into a rookie game plan (safe and simple), and he excelled in that role.

What’s not to like? 

Look, let’s just get it out there … the Jets are the Jets. They can’t have nice things.

I don’t dislike the Jets. I just feel sorry for them. And I know, if you’re a Jets fan, you don’t want my pity. But I’m just trying to be realistic about a quarterback who has played average for only a few games in a row. He wasn’t so good that the Steelers couldn’t replace him with Russell Wilson. Fields is leaving one of the NFL’s most stable environments (Pittsburgh) and entering one of the NFL’s least stable environments (New York). And as I’ve been pointing out, that matters enormously to these quarterbacks trying to establish themselves — and stop the journeyman phase of their careers.

It’s easy to imagine New York — even with a new coaching staff under Aaron Glenn — halting Fields’ progress.

What to expect: 

Hopefully, the Jets pick up where the Steelers left off. Fields doesn’t necessarily need a great offensive line, though it would help. He doesn’t even really need an offensive chock-full of weapons, though again it would help. He needs his first or second read to get open, and then he needs space to make plays with his legs. That’s where this offense should start: Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall (in both the rushing and passing game). Fields can be decisive in that kind of offense. And then — who knows? — hopefully they can build from there. 

That kind of offense gets predictable, of course. So if Fields wants to win the QB1 job for the foreseeable future, he’ll need to grow. And if he grows enough, maybe he’ll keep the Jets from drafting one of the touted QBs in the 2026 NFL Draft. That’s where New York might have its eyes for a QB of the future. Fields needs to play well enough to hold his GM’s attention.

Colts: Daniel Jones
The deal: one year, $14 million

What’s to like? 

He’s definitely a guy who plays quarterback. That’s … good?

During Jones’ rookie season with the Giants, there were points when he was playing quarterback fairly well. And the Colts, who have struggled to develop Anthony Richardson, might find they need a quarterback who can play fairly well. And Jones’ price reflects that he’s right on the cusp of starting.

The funny thing is, I’ve projected a regression for every QB on this list. Jones actually might be the one guy whose stock can improve. I don’t really care that he had an internship under Kevin O’Connell with the Vikings. It’s hard to imagine that a short stint as a scout-team QB did much. But in Indy, Jones will be a pocket passer, first and foremost. That’s not Richardson — not yet. And with help from running back Jonathan Taylor and receivers Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Adonai Mitchell, Jones at least has a supporting cast that can make him look good. (Even if that cast couldn’t do the same for Richardson.)

What’s not to like? 

Jones has not thrown more than 15 touchdowns since his rookie season. He has never thrown for 4,000 yards. Over the past few years, there aren’t many metrics that support the idea that he’s a starting-caliber quarterback. So it would be best if he was a break-in-case-of-emergency quarterback this season for Indy. Richardson needs to develop into the QB1 the Colts hoped he’d be when they selected him fourth overall in the 2023 draft. If they turn to Jones, it’ll be because Richardson has failed. And if Jones fails soon after that, it could mark the end of an era for GM Chris Ballard in Indy.

What to expect: 

Jones will compete for the starting job. Ballard has made that clear. Given what we’ve seen from Richardson, it’s distinctly possible that coach Shane Steichen picks Jones. I’ll admit my bias: I want Richardson to succeed. I think the Colts have enormously bungled his development. But this isn’t the type of league where coaches and GMs do what’s fair. It’s about the bottom line: Who’s the best QB for Week 1? Jones might be that guy. And if he is, he’ll have a vanilla year, probably completing 65% of his throws for 3,300 yards, 25 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. 

Vikings: J.J. McCarthy
The deal: four years, $21.8 million, fully guaranteed

What’s to like? 

This seat isn’t like the others in this game of musical chairs. McCarthy isn’t technically a new arrival. He is returning off injured reserve after sitting out his rookie season with a torn meniscus in his right knee. The injury gave life to Darnold’s career. Darnold’s departure will give life to McCarthy’s.

The Vikings took him at No. 10 overall last year with the goal of developing him into one of the best QBs in the NFL. Given O’Connell’s hot streak with developing QBs, it’s easy to like Minnesota’s chances with McCarthy. The Vikings reportedly turned down trade offers for him and also passed on signing free-agent Aaron Rodgers.

And with Darnold leaving, the Vikings are only getting better at other positions — taking full advantage of their QB on a rookie deal. They retained their top free agent, cornerback Byron Murphy. The return of running back Aaron Jones is massive. And then they added starting-caliber players (and potential Pro Bowlers) in center Ryan Kelly, guard Will Fries and defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. It’s possible cornerback Isaiah Rodgers has a big role, too.

This roster might be even better than in 2024. Will the quarterback be?

What’s not to like? 

We just don’t know what McCarthy looks like in NFL action. He threw a few passes last preseason before his injury. And while we’re on that topic, it’s important to remember that quarterbacks are rarely 100 percent in their first season back from a knee injury. 

RELATED: Vikings have yet to tell J.J. McCarthy he’s QB1 after turning down Aaron Rodgers

What to expect: 

McCarthy will face nothing but pressure and high expectations from Day 1. He’ll have to replicate what Darnold did. And even if the end of the year didn’t look good, Darnold was outstanding on the whole: 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. The hype will be through the roof for McCarthy.

I don’t think he’ll deliver quite like Darnold did. McCarthy’s production will probably come in at 90 percent of Darnold’s 2024 season. What will matter most is whether McCarthy can push the Vikings deeper into the playoffs.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna. 

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