No debate: Why the NFC North is easily the NFL’s best division this season

I was wrong.

I’ll start very simply there. Back in August, we ran a point/counterpoint on which division would be the NFL’s best in 2024. I made the case for the AFC North — which had all four teams with winning records last season — and my FOX Sports colleague, Carmen Vitali, chose the NFC North.

What is the NFL’s best division? Let’s debate!

She was soooooooooo right. In my defense, the readers agreed with me, with 38% choosing the AFC North in the poll that ran in the story, compared to 31% for the NFC North. We were all wrong.

How good is the NFC North in 2024? Its teams are 16-4 in non-division games, with the Vikings 5-0, Lions 4-1, and the Packers and Bears both 4-2. The most insane stat I can offer is this: All four NFC North teams are plus-40 or better in point differential right now, and no other teams in the NFL are plus-40 or better in point differential.

We knew the Lions and Packers would be strong contenders, and Green Bay even went 2-0 with quarterback Jordan Love out with a knee injury. What’s been surprising is how dominant the Vikings have been, both with Sam Darnold‘s passing and stellar defense under Brian Flores, and how well the Bears have quickly bonded around rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

Meanwhile, the AFC North features two of the league’s most glaring disappointments, with the Bengals scrapping just to be 2-4 and the Browns one of the NFL’s worst teams at 1-5. My mistake was thinking that more Deshaun Watson in 2024 would be a good thing, but his 21.5 QBR is the worst in the league. And Cleveland’s defense, arguably the NFL’s best a year ago, has taken a step back as well. The Ravens and Steelers are legit teams, but the division doesn’t have nearly the depth it had a year ago, even if the Bengals are a team that could rally and compete for a wild-card spot.

The bigger story is the NFC North’s teams — the four losses they’ve taken outside the division have all been by six points or fewer, and to teams that had winning records last year. There’s not really a bad loss in the lot, and there are convincing wins on the other side. On Sunday, the Lions beat the Cowboys by 38 points, the Packers beat the Cardinals by 21 and the Bears beat the Jaguars by 19. 

It starts with quarterback play: All four starters have at least eight touchdown passes, and Love has 12 despite missing two games. But it’s much more than just the QBs. Look at turnover margin, where all four NFC North teams rank in the top seven in the league. Green Bay is an NFL-best plus-12, Chicago and Detroit are plus-6 and Minnesota is plus-4. It’s even more pronounced on defense, with the Packers, Bears and Vikings ranking 1-2-3 in takeaways. The Vikings lead the league with 11 interceptions and the Packers lead with eight fumbles recovered.

If there’s a caveat in all these great starts, it’s probably Chicago, which is 4-2 with wins against four of the worst teams in the league — the 1-4 Rams, the 1-4 Titans, the 1-5 Panthers and 1-5 Jaguars. Week 8 will bring a showdown in Washington and a battle between the league’s top two rookie quarterbacks in Williams and Jayden Daniels. Beat the Commanders, on the road, and it will validate the Bears’ start much more than any victory to this point.

One more thing that will make the NFC North an exciting division all season: Its division games are jam-packed into the final weeks. There has been only one division game so far (some divisions have played five), and while Lions-Vikings this Sunday is a huge showdown, there’s only one other division game in the next four weeks. So, rather than beat up on each other, the NFC North will continue to play outside the division, setting up a pivotal stretch with seven division showdowns in the final six weeks.

Why does piling up regular-season wins matter even more for the NFC North? More wins equal better playoff seeding, and higher seeds yield more home playoff games. And no division has been more dominant at home than the NFC North. The Vikings, Lions, Packers and Bears are 11-2 so far, with one of the losses coming in the division. The AFC North, for comparison’s sake, is 3-7 at home in 2024.

The NFC North has produced only one wild card over the past three seasons, but it’s reasonable to think the division could have two in 2024. And the postseason will be the ultimate test of how good the NFC North is this year.

Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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