NFL Super Bowl LIX best prop bets: Back Mahomes Over passing attempts, yards

The largest sporting event on North American soil is set for Sunday, when the Eagles face the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX on FOX.

I have a few prop bets that I have been eyeing before the game, and they involve a number of the game’s superstars.  Let’s dive in.

Patrick Mahomes Over 35.5 pass attempts

The Chiefs had a left tackle problem during the regular season. 

They drafted Kingsley Suamataia to be their future at the position, but he was quickly benched as it was clear he was not ready to be a starter. Wanya Morris took his job and treaded water for a bit before getting injured and benched. The Chiefs signed DJ Humphries off the street, and he started one game before getting injured. 

So, in desperation mode, in an effort to fix that position, the Chiefs moved their All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle and slid Mike Caliendo into the vacant left guard position. That move worked to stabilize the offensive line and give Mahomes the time needed to complete passes. It’s clear Mahomes is more comfortable in the pocket since that quick reshuffle of the offensive line.

But, while the pass protection has improved, the Chiefs run game has suffered, which can’t be that big of a surprise. The Chiefs went from having two All-Pro linemen, plus a Pro-Bowl right guard, to moving Thuney to left tackle and playing a backup at left guard. The Chiefs have managed to work around it with some timely Kareem Hunt rushes and finding some creative ways to “run the ball,” which include short passes that act as runs. 

The biggest mismatch in this game will be Caliendo against Jordan Davis in the run game and, for that reason, I think the Chiefs will limit the amount of rush attempts we see on Sunday. That turns the Chiefs’ game plan from maybe 55% pass, 45% run, to something closer to 75% pass to 25% run, which favors Mahomes throwing the ball a ton. Remember, the Chiefs use fly sweeps, jet sweeps, screens and RPOs as “run plays” when their run game isn’t working. But these are all actually pass attempts. 

So I like Mahomes Over pass attempts.

Patrick Mahomes Over 251 passing yards

If I think Mahomes will throw the ball at least 36 times, I have to believe he’s throwing for at least 252 yards. It might take some work, as the Eagles defense does not allow explosive plays, but Mahomes does not attempt nor complete deep passes. He’s only thrown deep on 7% of pass attempts this season, and his average air yards per attempt is just under 6.5. Against this Eagles defense, that is exactly how you’d like to attempt passes. 

The Chiefs will work to find areas in the zone and get some yards after the catch. Mahomes’ arm has to be the offense. I like him to go Over, and this number would have gone Over in three of the past four Chiefs Super Bowls.

Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions

This number is one more than usual, but that doesn’t scare me away. 

As I wrote before the Texans divisional-round playoff game, the best opportunity to wager on Kelce in the postseason is games after a bye. This would qualify, with the Chiefs having a week off before Super Bowl week began.  

Kelce has been in this position nine times since 2020, and he’s been targeted at least six times with six catches in all nine of those games. He’s also coming off a game with only two catches against the Bills man coverage scheme, a game in which his age was showing.

The Eagles play zone at the 10th-highest rate in the league. Zone and Kelce receptions go hand-and-hand. He’s fantastic at finding those little areas on the field where defenders are not. Also, when teams play zone against the Chiefs, and Mahomes has to hold the ball a tad longer, he does tend to find Kelce in those moments. 

It’s worth noting that the Eagles are down one starting linebacker and Oren Burks has taken over for Nakobe Dean. Burks will be the target for the Chiefs. When he’s on the field, you’re going to see Kelce on him.

Total punts Under 6.5

Simply put, neither of these teams have any interest in punting and both attempt to avoid it as much as possible. 

Once these teams pass the 50-yard line, and maybe even slightly before midfield, they are going to attempt an offensive play on fourth down. The Eagles are uber-aggressive on fourth down and convert at the third-best rate in the NFL. The Chiefs might lean on some conservative principles in the games that don’t matter, but once the postseason is upon them, they tend to get aggressive on fourth down. They are the fourth-best team at converting on fourth down.

Saquon Barkley longest rush Under 25.5 yards

I’m playing a number here because it is super inflated with the success of Barkley in the postseason. A typical number for longest rush for a starting running back is between 17.5 and 19.5 yards, and this is six yards higher than that. 

I understand the line move. Barkley has touchdown runs of 60, 78 and 62 yards in the last two games. His long of 17 against the Packers could have been longer if Barkley wasn’t such a gentleman. However, the Chiefs are neither of those three defenses and have done a fantastic job of stopping rushers over the last two seasons. They have sound defensive schemes and good tackling safeties. I’m taking the Under.

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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