College football playoff predictions: Big Ten, SEC dominate the field

Welcome to the 2024 college football season, where this past weekend proved that anything is possible.

Texas – fresh off a bye and owning one ranked win, which happened to be against a Michigan team that now sits at No. 24 in the most recent AP Top 25 Poll – moved up to No. 1 in the AP Poll because the college football axion has officially been activated: Anybody can get their *** kicked, any time, any day.

Arkansas can turn the Vols into a red solo cup of Volunteers. Texas A&M can catch a Mizzou Tiger by his toe and when he hollers, put him in the figure four. Bama can get banged, slumped and dumped by the Commodores. 

Call them Vander-BUILT—a Brick House. 

Call them the home team as they stand over Alabama and ask, is this your king?

“Thou wast born of woman. But swords I smile at, weapons laugh to scorn, Brandished by man that’s of a woman born.”

That’s Shakespeare in his play “Macbeth.”

Vanderbilt might suffer Macbeth’s ultimate fate. But herald me will sing a song of dreams won on that Oct. 5 date.

Alabama is ranked seventh in the AP Top 25 Poll, and that’s ridiculous. This team lost to Cornelius. Not Sark. Not Kirby. Not Dan. Nobody loses to Cornelius. 

Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt makes Georgia’s loss to Bama look even worse: Keep this in mind: Vanderbilt has lost to Mizzou and Georgia State. Mizzou lost to Texas A&M. Texas A&M lost to Notre Dame. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois. 

Also keep this in mind: Vanderbilt had never beaten a No. 1, or even a No. 5 team, until this past weekend. With that, Tennessee vs Alabama on Oct. 19th has turned into a CFP play-in game. The same can be said for Alabama’s matchups against Mizzou, LSU and Oklahoma.

Super Conference bias remains strong

There were nine SEC teams in last week’s AP Top 25 Poll. Five were among the top 10. There were seven Big Ten teams in last week’s AP Top 25, with four in the top 10. That’s a total of 16 teams across just two conferences in last week’s AP Top 25.

Even after a week of unrivaled gladiatorial college football combat, nine teams from the SEC and six teams from the Big Ten make up the top-25 teams in the country.

The Big 12 and ACC might struggle to get a second team into the 12-team field when the selection committee suits sit down to rank teams.

The CFP is wide open

Given Texas is the last undefeated team in the SEC, and there are still nine SEC teams among the top 25 in the sport, a 10-2 SEC team will likely make the playoff.

With Texas A&M’s win against Missouri, Notre Dame is back in the CFP hunt because that win over the Aggies looks even better now, and A&M enters the CFP race, too.

With that, let’s get to my second set of CFP projections for the 2024 college football season:

1. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 5-0

2. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 5-0

3. Miami (Fla.)
Conference: ACC
Record: 6-0

4. Iowa State 
Conference: Big 12
Record: 5-0

5. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 5-0

6. Georgia
Conference: SEC
Record: 4-1

7. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 5-0

8. Clemson
Conference: ACC
Record: 4-1

9. BYU
Conference: Big 12
Record: 5-0

10. Tennessee 
Conference: SEC
Record: 4-1

11. Oklahoma
Conference: SEC
Record: 4-1

12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 4-1

Now that we have the projected seeding set, let’s take a look at what the first-round matchups would look like:

1. Ohio State: Bye (would then play the winner of 8. Clemson vs. 9. BYU)
2. Texas: Bye (would then play the winner of 7. Penn State vs. 10. Tennessee)
3. Miami: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Georgia vs. 11. Oklahoma)
4. Iowa State: Bye (would then play the winner of 5. Oregon vs. 12. Boise State)

5. Oregon (Big Ten championship runner-up) vs. 12. Boise State (highest-ranked Group of 5 champion)

A rematch of a thrilling Week 2 matchup? Yes please. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty barreled through the Ducks’ defense like a spiny blue shell in a wildly-competitive race in Mario Kart. He went blue bombing through Oregon for 192 rushing yards, despite the Broncos coming up just short on the scoreboard, the final result being a 37-34 loss to the Ducks. Jeanty is a blueberry stick of dynamite we can’t wait to see disorient, detonate and explode.

6. Georgia (SEC championship runner-up) vs. 11. Oklahoma (one of the top-12 teams)

A rematch of the 2018 Rose Bowl with a twist — the better defense is Oklahoma. Gone are the high-octane offenses of the Lincoln Riley era. In is Brent Venables and his dictating defense. With Georgia looking less like a supervillain and more like a level-two henchman, OU might find an offense good enough to challenge the Dawgs.

7. Penn State (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 10. Tennessee (one of the top-12 teams)

Two programs that were always the most likely to benefit from an extended playoff happen to be going up against one another in this scenario, which is a joy. Add in the fact that this matchup would essentially be making a bold statement about which conference is superior through the middle — SEC vs. Big Ten — and this game becomes one about league pride, as well as a trip to the quarterfinal round.

8. BYU (Big 12 championship runner-up) vs. 9. Clemson (ACC championship runner-up)

Historically, this is a game Clemson wins. But given the torrid start to the season by the Cougars, the Tigers might have their hands full. However, since its loss to Georgia to open the year, Clemson has looked more like the program Dabo Swinney has guided to two national titles over the last decade.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young and subscribe to “The RJ Young Show” on YouTube.

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