Chiefs-49ers a Super Bowl preview? Can SF win without CMC? Concern for KC offense?

You may have heard there’s a big game this week. The Chiefs and 49ers meet in a rematch of Super Bowls LIV and LVIII. Kansas City, of course, won both of those games, and the Chiefs are off to a 5-0 start this season. Plus, they’re coming off a bye, and Andy Reid has the highest winning percentage (.840, 21-4) in the game following a bye week in NFL history.

The Niners, meanwhile, have dealt with injuries to a few of their top playmakers, most notably reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey. They are 3-3 with losses to the Rams and Cardinals already on their 2024 slate. 

On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes is off to one of the slowest starts of his career, while Brock Purdy has raised his game in Year 3. Purdy has more passing yards, touchdowns and a better QBR than Mahomes. 

So, what to expect on Sunday? Well, to break it all down, we’re dedicating this week’s entire NFL Roundtable to previewing this epic matchup. Let’s get started.

Given that the 49ers’ three losses have come by a combined 10 points, has there been an overreaction to their 3-3 start?

First of all, they’re sitting in first place in the NFC West with that 3-3 record, so if anyone is writing off the 49ers, then yes, that’s a huge overreaction. It is a little concerning that two of their losses came to the Rams (1-4) and the Cardinals (2-4) and that they blew double-digit leads in both games, but a slow start probably shouldn’t have been surprising. Losing Christian McCaffrey was a huge blow. Take the best player out of any other offense in the NFL and see how those teams fare.

McCaffrey remains sidelined with Achilles tendinitis, but if there’s one thing Kyle Shanahan has proved over the years, it’s that his offensive scheme is pretty adaptive. He plugged in Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo and the Niners still have the No. 2 offense in the NFL (No. 3 in rushing). The defense isn’t as dominant as it has been, but it’s still ranked 11th.

They’ve also had slow starts before. They were 3-4 in 2022 before going on a 12-game winning streak that ended in the NFC Championship. They were 3-5 in 2021 before a 9-2 run took them to the NFC Championship. This team knows how to dig out of a hole. So dismiss them at your own risk. — Ralph Vacchiano

I’m with Ralph here. Are people really writing off the 49ers? I know it hasn’t been a spectacular start, but come on, now. Their best player isn’t on the field and they’re still sitting in first place in their division. Also, is Kyle Shanahan one of the league’s best offensive playcallers or not? He can and will adjust to the weapons he has available, and make no mistake, there are plenty.

I’m stealing this from someone online and I’m not sure who, but we talk a lot about system quarterbacks, which Brock Purdy isn’t, but in the case of Shanahan’s scheme, we should probably talk about system running backs. Jordan Mason has filled in for the injured Christian McCaffrey better than anyone has a right to and that’s a testament to Shanahan. Plus, you have guys like tight end George Kittle, who is just a total touchdown thief in the red zone. That will help continue the 49ers’ offensive production. They also has one of the conference’s best defenses, still, sitting just outside the top 10 in EPA/play league-wide and fifth in the NFC. They’ll get it together just in time for the playoffs if not before. — Carmen Vitali

Can the 49ers beat the Chiefs without Christian McCaffrey?

San Francisco has enough juice on offense to defeat Kansas City, particularly at home. It will be up to an undermanned defense — missing key pieces like defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga — to keep Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce from wrecking the game. Along with a defense that has struggled to get off the field at times this season, the 49ers have one of the worst special teams units in the league. If the defense and special teams hold up, the 49ers should score enough on offense to make things interesting. — Eric D. Williams

The 49ers can beat anybody. They’ve been off to a slow start, no doubt. But as you can see from the answers to the previous question, there also shouldn’t be any real reason for concern. They’re playing close games, and I have faith they’ll start winning them, in part because they don’t seem to have any meaningful or fatal flaws. Even without McCaffrey, they’re good at every position. And while some coaches (like Sean McVay) can scheme their receivers open, coach Kyle Shanahan can scheme his running backs into the open field. San Francisco saw Isaac Guerendo, their rookie fourth-string RB, nearly run for 100 yards last Sunday. 

This isn’t to say McCaffrey isn’t hugely valuable. It’s just to say that the 49ers have enough talent at every position to shoulder the loss of their top running back and, arguably, their best player. I know the Chiefs are undefeated, but I think they look a little complacent and a little lackadaisical — like they’re coasting to victory. I’d like to see the 49ers punch the Chiefs in the mouth in the first quarter and put them in a hole. And then (unlike the Chargers), the 49ers can hold onto the lead. — Henry McKenna

Patrick Mahomes has not been particularly sharp so far this season (middle of the pack in QBR, 6/6 TD-INT). What’s your level of concern with the Chiefs’ offense?

It’s easy to see Mahomes as ordinary so far. Only Will Levis has thrown more interceptions than he has. His quarterback rating is lower than Trevor Lawrence‘s. You want to say, “There’s no way the Chiefs are 15th in scoring offense,” but last year, when they won another Super Bowl, they were 15th in scoring offense. It seems impossible they’re 25th in turnover margin, but last year, they were 28th. They’re undefeated, and unless that momentum changes substantially, the AFC path to the Super Bowl goes through Arrowhead, and that makes the Chiefs a team to still be feared in January. — Greg Auman

My level of concern is low. Mahomes is a two-time league MVP with three Super Bowl rings. Head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes will get Kansas City back to playing elite football on offense at some point this season, because that’s what the Chiefs have done in the past. The 49ers just have to hope it does not click in for Kansas City on Sunday. 

That said, one minor concern for Mahomes could be giveaways. He’s got six interceptions this year, one shy of the league lead. The Chiefs need Mahomes to take better care of the football if they want to consistently beat elite teams and ultimately win the Super Bowl for an unprecedented third straight time.  — Eric D. Williams

Does Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo have Kyle Shanahan’s number?

Shanahan certainly has had his struggles scoring points against Kansas City’s defense. The 49ers have averaged just 21.7 points per game in three matchups with Spagnuolo as Kansas City’s DC, including the postseason. This season, Kansas City is blitzing 34% of the time, No. 6 in the NFL. Last season, San Francisco’s inability to handle Spagnuolo’s well-timed blitzes led to a couple poor throws by Brock Purdy late in the Super Bowl and cost the 49ers the title. How they handle Spagnuolo’s disguised pressure packages will go a long way in determining the outcome on Sunday. — Eric D. Williams

There’s a case to be made here, given that in two Super Bowls against Shanahan, the 49ers haven’t scored more than 22 points against Spags’ defense. It’s the biggest game with the most amount of preparation, given that teams get two weeks between the conference championship and the big game. Shanahan’s unit only scored 23 in their only regular season meeting back in 2022. 

This season doesn’t look to be any different, with the Chiefs ranking ninth in EPA/play allowed against the run. Running the ball is what Shanahan does so well — and so differently than so many other offenses. San Francisco runs 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two receivers) at the highest rate in the league — 41.7% of the time. Only the Dolphins run it at a similar rate (with Mike McDaniel being a Shanahan disciple) and after that, the third-highest rate of 21 personnel is run by the Saints at 22.5%. The point is, it’s strength vs. strength when Shanahan and Spags meet. This weekend should be no exception. — Carmen Vitali

Who will be Tom Brady’s LFG Player of the Game on Sunday and why?

I’m going to say 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa. The Chiefs’ offensive tackle play hasn’t been great for Patrick Mahomes, who’s facing the highest sack rate since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor and left tackles Wanya Morris (current starter) and Kingsley Suamataia (started the first two games) have given up a combined 23 pressures, per Pro Football Focus. That sets up a big game for Bosa, who’s had a slow start to the season by his standards. His three sacks are tied for 25th in the league. But he does have 18 pressures, which is tied for third, according to Pro Football Reference. So if I’m Bosa, I’m licking my chops looking at this matchup. — Ben Arthur

My pick is 49ers tight end George Kittle. He’s back in a big way — tied for the NFL lead with five touchdown catches, after totaling six in all of last season. The Chiefs have given up the second-most yards to tight ends of any NFL defense (already 409, with two touchdowns) so it’s a vulnerability and one the 49ers are smart enough to exploit. Give him a touchdown and his first 100-yard game of the season, and he’ll edge Brock Purdy for LFG honors. — Greg Auman

Will there be a third Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl matchup in the near future?

I don’t believe so. I think the Chiefs should stay in the mix. Having Patrick Mahomes and a great defense with young talent will do that. But it feels like we’re watching the decline of the 49ers. I know they’re currently leading the NFC West — thanks to the tiebreaker over the Seattle Seahawks — but their 3-3 start has exposed their flaws. 

San Francisco just isn’t the same without Christian McCaffrey, who could be on the decline considering the severity of his injury coupled with his age and the position he plays. Trent Williams is still a superstar, but he’s 36. He will regress sooner rather than later. The defense also hasn’t been the same since DeMeco Ryans’ departure. Injuries have been piling up, too. The Niners still have some great young talent that will keep them in the playoff mix, but there are other NFC teams that have more long-term Super Bowl upside. — Ben Arthur

Sustaining greatness is so hard in the free-agency era, but the Chiefs and 49ers are doing it. Right now their organizations are the classes of their conferences. So yes, I would expect to see them meet up again in the Super Bowl sometime in the next few years.

Both franchises have everything. They have two of the best coaches in the NFL, two quarterbacks who can play at MVP levels, two outstanding defenses. And they obviously both know how to win. The 49ers have been in three straight NFC championship games (and four of the past five). The Chiefs have been in six straight, they’ve been to the Super Bowl four of the past five years, and won it all the last two years.

Experience like that matters in the playoffs as much as any other factor. So I wouldn’t bet against the Chiefs and 49ers having another rematch sometime in the next few years. I wouldn’t even be shocked if it happens this season. — Ralph Vacchiano

Why not? Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan aren’t going anywhere. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid aren’t going anywhere. Those two tandems are among the most powerful in the league alongside John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. Those folks have staying power that we haven’t seen from many coaches around the NFL. I don’t think we’ll see the 49ers or Chiefs go through a coach-quarterback breakup anytime soon. As a result, I think the 49ers and Chiefs are destined to see each other at least one more time in the Super Bowl — and as soon as this year. — Henry McKenna

The following writers contributed to this story: Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano); Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams).

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