When a team turns to a rookie quarterback, it’s almost always a sign that the franchise is starting over. It’s about building toward a better future, usually at the expense of the present.
Just don’t tell that to the Washington Commanders, Chicago Bears and even the Denver Broncos this year.
All three teams could be on their way to upending that conventional wisdom this season. They all have winning records five games in, despite having rookie starters. And all three at least have a shot to make a playoff run.
Their paths have been vastly different, of course. In Washington, Jayden Daniels has been electric for the Commanders (4-1) — arguably the biggest reason why they sit atop the NFC East. In Chicago, Caleb Williams has been up and down, but he has clearly energized the Bears (3-2). And in Denver … well, the Broncos (3-2) are winning despite Bo Nix, thanks mostly to a smothering defense. (Drake Maye makes his first NFL start this weekend for the Patriots, who don’t appear to have much of a path to the playoffs.)
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But it doesn’t matter how you get there — it’s just about getting there. And it doesn’t happen often with rookie quarterbacks. In the Super Bowl era, only 14 teams that had a rookie start at least 10 games at quarterback during the regular season have made it to the playoffs. Only three have done it since 2013: Dallas’ Dak Prescott (2016), New England’s Mac Jones (2021) and Houston’s C.J. Stroud (2023).
And three haven’t done it in the same season since 2012, when Russell Wilson (Seattle), Andrew Luck (Indianapolis) and Robert Griffin III (Washington) all helped their teams to the postseason.
Can Daniels, Williams and/or Nix add to that list? Here’s a look at their paths and their chances:
Washington Commanders/Jayden Daniels
There is no doubt that Daniels has been the NFL’s best rookie through the first five games. He’s also been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. He leads the league with a completion percentage of 77.1%. He’s the first player ever to have at least 1,000 passing yards (1,135) and 250 rushing yards (300) in his first five games. His 73.2 QBR ranks third in the league.
[Read more: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels’ historic rookie run puts him in MVP conversation]
[Read more: How rookie QB Jayden Daniels has already become ‘the answer’ for Commanders]
But the reason the Commanders are winning and a good bet to make the playoffs is that they’re about much more than just Daniels. They are the highest-scoring team in the NFL (31 points per game). They’re the NFL’s No. 2 rushing team, and not just because of Daniels, but because of Brian Robinson Jr. (73 carries, 325 yards) and Austin Ekeler (19-150), too.
And even their defense has been surprisingly good (ranked 14th) thanks in part to a pass rush that has generated 15 sacks (eighth).
The road to the playoffs: So far the Commanders have fattened up on the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals and Browns, who have a combined record of 6-14. Things do get tougher with a game at Baltimore on Sunday and four division games against the Eagles and Cowboys. But their schedule isn’t terrible. They still get to play the Panthers, Bears, Titans and Falcons, too.
Playoff outlook: All the Commanders have to do is play .500 the rest of the way and they’ll win 10 games and be in. They are a solid, well-coached team that can run and stop the run, and that’s probably good enough for them to get there. Add in an electric quarterback and it feels like a lock. If Daniels doesn’t badly regress at some point, they should coast in, especially if either the Eagles or Cowboys falter.
Chicago Bears/Caleb Williams
The past two weeks have renewed hope in Chicago, mostly because Williams — the No. 1 overall pick — has started to look like the player he’s supposed to be. That was particularly true last Sunday when he threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns in a 36-10 win over Carolina.
Yes, the two wins in two weeks were against the Panthers and Rams (both 1-4), but the Chicago hope is more about Williams’ progression. The Bears have surrounded him with a lot of good pieces, like receivers DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, tight end Cole Kmet, and even running back D’Andre Swift. But Williams had been unable to ignite them early. He threw for just 267 total yards in his first two starts. He had four interceptions in his first three.
If he’s really settling in, though, the Bears might have enough to make a run. They have a top-10 defense to help him out, but they’re going to need Williams to consistently play up to his potential.
Has Caleb Williams turned the corner after win over Panthers?
[Read more: Things continue trending up for Caleb Williams, Bears’ offense]
The road to the playoffs: The Bears are in last place in the NFC Central, which says a lot about their upcoming road. They haven’t played a division game yet, which means they still have to play the Vikings (5-0), Lions (3-1) and Packers (3-2) twice each. Plus, they play at San Francisco, at Washington and against the Seahawks. Really, after a Week 10 home game against the Patriots, there’s no break in their final eight games.
Playoff outlook: It’s not particularly good, given the competition. Even if they beat the Jaguars on Sunday and are 4-2 heading into their bye, Williams would really have to take a big leap just to get Chicago playing around .500 the rest of the way, given the caliber of their competition. The division alone is a dangerous gauntlet. The game Williams played last week will have to become his norm for the Bears to make a playoff run.
Denver Broncos/Bo Nix
This has to be new for Sean Payton, who has long been considered one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. He’s never had to win despite his quarterback before — not like this. But that’s really what the Broncos are doing right now. They have won three straight games even though Nix completed just 56 total passes for only 482 yards in those games.
They even won one game — 10-9 over the Jets in London — when he completed just 48% of his passes for 60 yards.
How? Defense, mostly. The Broncos defense ranks third overall and tied for sixth in turnovers (eight) and third in sacks (19). And don’t discount Payton’s coaching; he’s turned Nix into a somewhat efficient game manager. He hasn’t thrown an interception in the past three games (all wins).
Denver’s plan seems to be to let the defense win games and ask Nix to just stay out of trouble. Teams can win a lot of games that way, if the defense really is good enough to carry them.
The road to the playoffs: It’s not terrible. Take away two games against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Broncos’ schedule isn’t bad at all. They play a lot of beatable teams, like the Chargers, Saints (in two weeks, without Derek Carr), Panthers, Falcons, Raiders and Browns. A punishing, turnover-happy defense might be enough to get them just enough wins to stay in the race.
Playoff outlook: It’s hard to win a lot of games in the NFL without a quarterback, which is where the Broncos are right now. There’s nothing good Nix is doing except for staying out of the way, really. When a quarterback is that unimpressive, it usually takes an all-time defense to carry him. So, unless Nix’s play starts to really improve, the Broncos will probably be better than expected, but not quite good enough.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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