Biggest college football upset ever? How Vanderbilt’s massive win vs. Alabama ranks

Vanderbilt had lost 23 straight games against Alabama. It hadn’t beat the Crimson Tide since 1984, and with an electric win against Georgia last week, no one thought the Commodores had a chance in Nashville on Saturday.

But somehow, Clark Lea and company did the unthinkable. 

Closing as 23.5-point underdogs at most sportsbooks, Vanderbilt took down the top ranked team in the country in a 40-35 shootout.

Diego Pavia, a transfer from New Mexico State, completed 80% of his passes for 252 yards, two touchdown passes and added another 56 yards on the ground.

But just how historic is this win from a gambling perspective? Where does this upset rank among the biggest ones in modern college football history?

Below we’ve given you some nuggets to contextualize where Vandy’s win ranks. Let’s take a look:

Victorious Vandy

• Vanderbilt picked up just their third win since 1978 when being a 20+ point underdog (beat Missouri as 19-point underdogs in 2019 and Georgia as 20.5-point underdogs in 1994); they are now 3-93 since 1978 as 20+ point underdogs.
• Vanderbilt is now 1-7 vs the AP No. 1 team since 1978; in those seven losses they scored a combined 44 points (had 40 today).
• Vanderbilt also picks up their first win vs an AP top 5 team ever; entered today 0-60 all-time vs AP top 5 opponents.
• Vanderbilt is the sixth team since 1978 to win as a 23+ point underdog, and the first one to do so since 2008; AP No. 1 teams that are 23+ point favorites are now 244-6 in that span.
• Vanderbilt’s win as a 23.5-point underdog is tied for the third-largest upset in an SEC conference matchup since 1978.
• This was also the first time Vanderbilt scored 40 points against an AP top 10 team.
• Alabama entered today’s game with a 60-0 record when playing as the AP No. 1 team and being a favorite of 20+ points since 1978.
• Alabama entered today’s game with a 155-3 record when a 20+ point favorite since 1978 (lost to Georgia Tech (+24) in 1981, LSU (+24) in 1993, and UL Monroe (+24.5) in 2007).
• This was just the fourth time ever that Alabama has lost to an unranked opponent as the AP No. 1 team (lost to Texas A&M in 2021, Mississippi State in 1980, to Georgia Tech in 1962).
• Alabama entered today’s game vs Vanderbilt with a 60-2 record against unranked opponents when playing as the AP No. 1 team since 1978 (lost to Texas A&M in 2021 and Mississippi State in 1980).

AP NO. 1 TEAMS TO LOSE AS 23+ POINT FAVORITE

SINCE 1978

2024: Alabama (-23.5) lost to Vanderbilt

2008: USC (-25) lost to Oregon State

2001: Florida (-23) lost to Auburn

1998: Ohio State (-27) lost to Michigan State

1996: Nebraska (-24.5) lost to No. 17 Arizona State

1984: Nebraska (-24) lost to Syracuse

LARGEST UNDERDOGS TO WIN

SEC MATCHUPS SINCE 1978

2004: Mississippi State (+24) defeated No. 20 Florida

1993: LSU (+24) defeated No. 5 Alabama

2024: Vanderbilt (+23.5) defeated No. Alabama

2014: Texas A&M (+23.5) defeated No. 3 Auburn

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