Can Eagles’ Saquon Barkley become first running back to win MVP since 2012?

There’s no question that Saquon Barkley has transformed the offense for the Philadelphia Eagles.

During Philadelphia’s current seven-game winning streak, Barkley has accounted for nearly 40 percent of the offense, rushing for a league-high 957 rushing yards and six touchdowns during that time span.

Barkley was unstoppable in a 37-20 road victory over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12, rushing for a career-high 255 yards. He had two rushing touchdowns of over 70 yards.

“He’s a different type of player,” Rams rookie edge rusher Jared Verse said after the game. “I’ve never seen a running back like that. He can go downhill. He can bounce. And he did both of those on us, so we have to be better across the board.” 

Barkley leads the league with 1,392 rushing yards, already his career high, and he’s on pace to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark for the season. But even doing that will not guarantee him the NFL MVP award.

Just last year, Christian McCaffrey led the league in scrimmage yards (2,023) and total touchdowns (21), yet the 49ers star finished third in the MVP voting. In 2009, Chris Johnson became the sixth NFL player to rush for more than 2,000 yards with 2,006, yet Peyton Manning won the MVP award that season. Derrick Henry totaled a career-high 2,027 rushing yards in 2020 but did not finish among the MVP finalists, instead winning Offensive Player of the Year.

The last running back to win the MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012. He rushed for 2,097 yards that season. 

Quarterbacks have won the award the past 11 seasons. Also, during that time, the MVP winner played for a team with either a No. 1 or No. 2 playoff seed. 

For Barkley to overcome the QB bias and have a realistic shot to win the award, he’ll have to do something historic — like break Eric Dickerson’s single-season NFL rushing record of 2,105 yards. And it would help if the 9-2 Eagles could overtake the 10-1 Detroit Lions as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 

Barkley does have momentum on his side. After his career-best performance on Sunday, he made an enormous jump in the MVP odds, from 75/1 last week to 5/1. Josh Allen remains the front-runner, while Lamar Jackson is second.

[RELATED: 2024 NFL MVP: Can a non-QB win MVP? Here are 5 since 2012 who came close]

Here are my top five in the MVP Watch heading into Week 13. 

1. Josh Allen, Bills
Current MVP Odds: +150 (bet $10 to win $25 total)

The Bills are coming off their bye and have an interesting contest at home this week, facing a San Francisco 49ers team desperate to stay alive in the NFC playoff hunt.

Allen has played only once against the 49ers in his career. During the 2020 season, he completed 80% of his passes for 375 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-24 win. 

2. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Current MVP Odds: +275 (bet $10 to win $37.50 total)

The reigning NFL MVP was on autopilot in his team’s road victory over the Chargers on Monday night. Jackson threw for 177 passing yards and two scores, with no interceptions. He also rushed for a touchdown.

Derrick Henry did most of the heavy lifting, finishing with 140 rushing yards. This week, the Ravens face a huge test when they host Barkley and the Eagles. 

3. Saquon Barkley, Eagles
Current MVP Odds: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)

Barkley has been amazing this season, but he also credits his offensive line, one of the best in the NFL. According to Next Gen Stats, Barkley is averaging a career-high 2.6 yards before contact, one of the best numbers in the league. That means he is consistently hitting holes clean and at full speed before reaching the second level of the defense.

4. Jared Goff, Lions 
Current MVP Odds: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)

The leader of the most explosive offense in the league, Goff is carving up single-high-safety looks this season. According to Next Gen Stats, Goff has totaled league highs in completion percentage (74.5%) and yards (1,809) against single-high-safety coverage, while ranking second in yards per attempt (9.4).

On Thursday, the Cal product takes on a Chicago defense that has used single-high-safety coverage at the fifth-highest rate this season (60.5%), allowing the 10th-most yards per attempt (7.8), per Next Gen Stats.  

5. Joe Burrow, Bengals 
Current MVP Odds: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)

Yes, Cincinnati is 4-7 and teetering on the edge of irrelevance. Burrow, however, is having one of his best seasons statistically. He’s third in the league in passing yards (3,028), tied for first in passing touchdowns (27) and third in the NFL in passer rating (106.9). And he has just four interceptions on the year. 

If the Bengals can get more consistent play from the defense down the stretch, Burrow could enter the MVP conversation. 

Honorable mention: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Derrick Henry, Baker Mayfield

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.

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