As we head toward Thanksgiving and down the stretch of the NFL season, the MVP market has seen a dramatic shakeup after last week’s action.
We have a new favorite, as Josh Allen catapulted into the lead thanks to an impressive performance in a 30-21 victory over the Chiefs in Week 11.
Allen was not only tremendous in the win, but he did it with everyone watching, due to the high-profile nature of the game. He also had his “Heisman moment” that we hear so much about in college football — a long touchdown run on fourth-and-2 with the Bills only ahead by two points.
Failing to convert there would have given the ball back to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs with a chance to win with a field goal. That was a signature play in a huge moment for Allen.
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Allen is now a +150 favorite. The only problem? It’s only Week 12, and there’s a lot of football to be played, as the Bills still have tough games against the 49ers and Lions remaining.
Josh has been great and is the rightful favorite to win his first ever MVP, but the Bills could lose a couple more games, and as we’ve seen, that can change things in terms of the odds. He deserves to be favored, but I don’t think the +150 price is enough to bet on him to win.
However, there is one bet in the futures market that I do like.
Chiefs no longer sit on top, Lions are a civilian calling in Nick’s Tiers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +400 (FanDuel) to win NFC South
The Bucs were off last week but picked up ground on the first-place Falcons, who were crushed 34-6 against the Broncos. The Bucs have a chance to gain more ground this week.
They are 5.5-point favorites against the Giants, a Giants team that has turned to third-string quarterback Tommy Devito. The Falcons are currently 6-4, while the Bucs are 5-6. Atlanta does own the tiebreaker due to its sweep of the head-to-head season series. But the schedules for the respective teams certainly indicate that the Bucs are still capable of rallying and winning this division.
After this game with the Giants, the Bucs still have two games with the lowly Panthers, home games against the Saints and Raiders, as well as a visit to Dallas to take on the dreadful Cowboys. The Falcons are on a bye this week and return to action next week with a game against the Chargers, followed by a trip to Minnesota to play the Vikings. Then Atlanta still has to play on the road against the Commanders later this season.
The Falcons have a cushion in the NFC South, but considering the fact that they’ve lost two in a row in ugly fashion and the remaining schedules for both teams, the Bucs rallying to win the division is a bet that has a real chance to cash in at juicy +400 odds.
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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