2025 March Madness odds: Back favorites Florida, Duke to cover in Final Four

And then there were four! 

The 2025 men’s NCAA Tournament has lacked the upsets and drama that we’ve become accustomed to seeing in March. However, we are left with four outstanding teams and hopefully three outstanding games to finish the season. 

For the first time since 2008 — and for just the second time ever — the Final Four consists of all No. 1 seeds. Florida overcame a 9-point deficit in the final minutes to defeat Texas Tech in the Elite Eight. Duke, Auburn and Houston all cruised to comfortable wins in the last round to find themselves in San Antonio, with a chance to cut down the nets on Monday night. 

This Tournament is typically beloved by fans for buzzer-beaters and Cinderella stories. But that element seems to have been compromised by the new era of college sports. Now, with NIL and the transfer portal, bigger schools have more ability to pick off the best players from smaller schools. 

The 2025 version of March Madness has been predictable and games have often been lopsided. Let’s see if it can be salvaged with a great Final Four, while we try to make some money in the final few games of the college basketball season. 

No. 1 Florida (-2.5) vs. No. 1 Auburn 

I like Florida here. And it’s simply because of the uncertainty surrounding Auburn superstar Johni Broome. He left last Sunday’s game against Michigan State with an elbow injury. Broome did return, but does that mean he’s 100 percent healthy or was he fueled by adrenaline when he came back?

Also, if Broome is compromised, Florida might make it a point of emphasis to be ultra-physical with him to see if it can wear him down. These teams met on Feb. 8 in Auburn with a healthy Broome. The result was a decisive 90-81 road win for the Gators that put Florida on the map as a national contender. 

Florida, though, in many respects, is fortunate to still be playing. The Gators could have lost to UConn, which led by six in the second half in the Round of 32 game. When the Gators played Texas Tech, the Red Raiders led by nine with just a few minutes remaining. Both of those close calls, however, came after only one day of prep. 

Florida’s most impressive performance in this Tournament? That came against Maryland in the Sweet 16, when it had a long break between games, as it has had before this matchup against Auburn.

And for a bonus pick, you might consider wagering on Broome Under 31.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.

PICK: Florida (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points 

No. 1 Duke (-5) vs. No. 1 Houston

A rematch of a Sweet 16 game from last year when Duke sent 1-seed Houston packing with a 54-51 upset. In that game, Houston star Jamaal Shead got hurt and was not able to return. 

I’m not sure how much of last year’s matchup carries over to this one, as Houston was dealing with injuries, and Duke has almost an entirely new (and better) team from last year. The one thing that I will take away from last year that could repeat itself is the ugly, low-scoring nature of that game. And it lacked tempo. 

Ultimately, I’m going to pick Duke to win and cover again. The Blue Devils have been a team that is simply hard to bet against considering how dominant it has been up to this point. Duke has an average margin of victory of nearly 24 points per game in this Tournament, and while Houston will be its stiffest competition by far, I have no interest in stepping in front of this Duke juggernaut. 

Duke quieted a red-hot Alabama offense in the Elite Eight and held the Tide to just 8-for-32 from behind the arc and only 65 points in a lopsided 85-65 contest. The Blue Devils have the athleticism on defense to disrupt Houston, while having the explosiveness on offense to eventually pull away. 

Duke reminds me too much of the last couple UConn title teams in its dominant nature for me look to bet the other way.

PICK: Duke (-5) to win by more than 5 points

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network. 

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