The last two weeks have not been fun.
A 13-5 start has morphed into a 14-14 season record and that’s just not going to cut it.
Here’s hoping for a much-needed turnaround this weekend.
I’ve got three college bets and two NFL wagers this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These will always be the games I love the most. Let’s go to work.
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2024 Record: (14-14, -1.3 units)
No. 6 Miami (-5, O/U 60.5) @ Louisville
This is one of two college favorites I’m buying low on this week. The appetite to bet Miami has decreased after the Canes failed to cover against Virginia Tech and Cal, both games they could’ve lost. But I don’t trust Louisville’s defense at all. If Miami quarterback Cam Ward protects the football, this could easily be a double-digit win for the ACC’s most talented team.
PICK: Miami (-5) to win by more than 5 points
No. 24 Michigan (-4, O/U 44.5) @ No. 22 Illinois
I’m still not sure what happened to Illinois in the second half against Purdue. The Illini blew a 27-3 lead and escaped with a 50-49 overtime win. Is it more important how they started or how they finished? Eh. At the end of the day, I’m not laying points with Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines on the road. And I’m not buying the excitement for another new quarterback at Michigan. I-L-L…
PICK: Illinois (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points, or win outright
No. 7 Alabama (-3, O/U 57) @ No. 11 Tennessee
I never quite bought into the Tennessee hype. It’s amazing what happens when you enter conference play, isn’t it? Granted, Tennessee and Alabama have both dealt with issues over the last couple of weeks, but I believe Alabama’s ceiling is higher. And let’s not forget the Tide have a marquee win over Georgia, while Tennessee’s best win came against an OU team that can’t score.
PICK: Alabama (-3) to win by more than 3 points
NFL Week 7 Best Bets: Giants vs. Eagles, Commanders team total
Seahawks @ Falcons (-3, O/U 51)
The Seahawks are a polarizing team right now. Rookie head coach Mike Macdonald kicked off his head coaching career with three wins, then lost the next three games. Now what? Well, I like that Seattle played last Thursday night, which gave their front seven much needed time to recover. I also think Seattle’s offense can go blow for blow with Kirk Cousins. Take the points.
PICK: Seahawks (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Dolphins @ Colts (-3, O/U 43.5)
Am I crazy for liking the Colts more with Joe Flacco? It’s sounding like Anthony Richardson will lace ‘em up under center, so be ready for that rollercoaster. Meanwhile, the Fish should be able to run the ball on the Indianapolis front. Mike McDaniel’s offense has had two weeks to prepare, and I don’t believe the Colts can limit all of Miami’s weapons for four quarters.
PICK: Dolphins (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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