2024 NFL Week 7 action report: Books seeing more Chiefs money ahead of 49ers clash

There’s one game that really jumps out on the NFL Week 7 oddsboard: The Kansas City Chiefs travel to meet the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LVIII.

No question, that matchup will be heavily bet. But as the weekend approaches, a more intriguing trend is developing on the second-biggest contest: the Detroit Lions vs. the Minnesota Vikings.

“This is shaping up to be a Pros vs. Joes matchup. The public really likes the Lions, and the sharps like the Vikings,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.

To see how both games unfold, you won’t even have to change the channel, as Lions-Vikings/Chiefs-49ers make up the FOX NFL doubleheader.

Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on those two clashes and a handful of other games, as we dive into NFL Week 7 betting nuggets.

NFL Rocks On FOX

In the 1 p.m. ET window on Sunday, the Lions-Vikings game leads the way. Minnesota is atop the league both on the field and vs. the point spread, at 5-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Detroit is 4-1 SU and ATS, coming off a 47-9 blasting of the Dallas Cowboys on the road.

Oh, and in case you need reminding: Since the middle of the 2022 NFL season, no team is better at beating the spread than the Lions. Detroit has been as close as possible to an ATM for bettors, going 27-8 ATS and a nearly-as-good 26-9 SU in its last 35 games.

So it makes perfect sense that the public betting masses are on Jared Goff & Co.

“We’ve seen the line move toward the Vikings, but the money is coming in on the Lions,” Feazel said Wednesday afternoon.

Caesars opened Lions-Vikings at Minnesota -1.5 and got to -2.5 by Tuesday morning. However, by Wednesday evening, the Vikes fell back to -1.5, perhaps another indicator of sharp bettors taking the Lions and the points.

At 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, it’s Chiefs-49ers, with San Fran hoping to exact some revenge for a 25-22 overtime loss in the Super Bowl. The Niners (3-3 SU and ATS) have been either 1- or 1.5-point favorites all week and stood at -1 (-115) on Wednesday night. Kansas City is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS.

“This has been on each team’s calendar since the schedule came out, a circled game,” Feazel said. “Action-wise, we’re seeing more Chiefs money, and particularly Chiefs and Over money.

“But there’s not a lot of movement. I’m not sure if bettors see an edge on either side.”

NFL Sharp Side

Professional bettor Randy McKay finally hit a speed bump in the NFL in Week 6, going 0-3 after a 7-1 run. As noted earlier this week, public bettors had a monster Week 6, so it stands to reason that the sharp guys got beat up a bit.

McKay is involved with three games this week. He’s leading off with the Miami Dolphins +4 vs. the Indianapolis Colts. McKay got that number right out of the gate on Sunday evening, and the Dolphins are now down to +3.

But he’d still recommend Dolphins +3.5 if you can get it.

“The Dolphins are off a much-needed bye to get more [practice] reps for backup QB Tyler Huntley. I also like the fact that Anthony Richardson is playing for the Colts, instead of Joe Flacco,” McKay said.

Richardson, healing up from an oblique injury, is expected to return for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff.

McKay’s other plays this week:

• Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs. Giants: “Philly is getting more healthy, whereas the Giants are banged up after Monday Night Football,” McKay said, specifically noting New York left tackle Andrew Thomas, who is done for the season with a foot injury. “This gives Philly a big edge in the trenches, and this is a short number.” Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET Sunday
• Los Angeles Chargers -2 vs. Arizona Cardinals: “I feel this game should be Chargers -3 or higher. So, another small, road-favorite spot here. It’s another game where the Chargers should win the interior battle on both sides. The Chargers contained Patrick Mahomes three weeks ago and will need to do so vs. Kyler Murray, who might be without rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.” Kickoff is at 9 p.m. ET Monday.

NFL Quick Hitters

Feazel also had thoughts on two more games in the NFL Week 7 odds market:

• Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers: The Packers opened -2.5 and quickly went to -3 (even) Sunday night. Midweek, it’s Packers -2.5 (-120). “The Texans are in a lot of close games,” Feazel said, noting Houston has seen four one-score finals this season, and won all four, by the way. “I think we’ll see two-way action on this game but a little more on the Packers’ side.” Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.
• Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Ravens opened -4.5 at Caesars, went to -4 on Sunday night, then -3.5 on Monday morning. “Kind of the sharper side and the underrated side is the Bucs,” Feazel said, noting professional bettors took Tampa +4.5 and +4. “Bettors are really liking the Over. Both teams scored 30 points or more in their last three games.” Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET Monday.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There are no reported six-figure plays yet in NFL Week 7 odds. But trust me, they’re coming. Two notable wagers at Caesars Sports:

• $26,100 Packers moneyline -145 vs. Texans. So if Green Bay just wins, regardless of margin, the bettor profits $18,000 (total payout $44,100).
• $24,000 Dolphins +3.5 (-120) vs. Colts. Bettor profits $20,000 if Miami covers (total payout $44,000).

We’ll wrap it up with a couple stinging leftovers from NFL Week 6 odds:

• $300,000 Jets +2 at BetMGM’s Borgata sportsbook in Atlantic City.
• $110,000 Jets +2.5 at Caesars Sports.

New York lost to Buffalo 23-20, failing to cover the spread in the process. If I’d made a Jets bet at a fraction of these amounts, I’d be like the Tiger King: “I am never gonna financially recover from this.”

Which serves as a good reminder to keep your wagering reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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