Davante Adams trade roundtable: Who won and what it all means going forward

The New York Jets have acquired Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders for a conditional third-round pick that can turn into a second-round pick, according to reports. The star receiver was reportedly in the Jets’ building on Tuesday morning, wasting no time in getting started with his new team.

So who won this deal, and what does it mean for both teams? FOX Sports’ NFL experts have the answers.

Who won this trade?

Ralph Vacchiano: The Jets are the clear winners here (That’s something you don’t say often!). They get a truly elite receiver who has averaged 98 catches, 1,231 yards and 11 touchdowns over the past eight seasons. They get to pair him with Garrett Wilson, one of the most talented young receivers in the NFL. They keep their quarterback happy by giving Aaron Rodgers what he wants. They re-energize their locker room and fan base after a demoralizing loss to the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. And they complete a Hail Mary from GM Joe Douglas to maybe save a failing season and his job. And all for a conditional third-round pick?

The Jets have gone 13 straight seasons without making the playoffs. If they can squeeze into the postseason this year, nobody’s going to care what that pick could have been — even if it becomes a second-rounder. So give credit where it’s due, because every team wishes they had a GM willing to go for it, even if it feels a little desperate. Maybe it is. But is there any franchise in the NFL more desperate than the Jets? It probably won’t work because, let’s face it, things rarely work out for the Jets. But at least they took a big swing.

Henry McKenna: The Jets won this deal, but they have opened themselves up to some risk. The conditional pick goes from being a third-rounder to a second-rounder if Adams finishes as a first-team or second-team All Pro, or if he is active for either the AFC Championship or Super Bowl. In essence, everything has to go right for Adams to cost a second-rounder, and if that’s the case, he’ll probably be worth the price. Ultimately, a pick between 60 and 80 isn’t so bad for a wideout like Adams (as Ralph pointed out).

Adams’ contract is such that the Jets aren’t going to want to pay him in 2025, and they have no obligation to do so. They will either cut him at the end of the year or re-sign him on a new deal. And that’s where some of my questions come in. Aaron Rodgers is the glue that brought this deal together. What if he retires after 2024? What if he demands a trade? If the Jets melt down even more, they run the risk of paying a premium pick for Adams to help them for just 10 weeks. Again, if this goes right, Rodgers will want to play on the final year of his deal for 2025 and Adams will likely re-sign for a team-friendly price — and all will be well. But how often does all go well with the Jets?

Eric D. Williams: It’s the Raiders. They move on from a player on the downside of his career who didn’t want to be there, and in the process, they get another desperate team to pay his salary for the rest of the year. Las Vegas also received a valuable draft pick that could be as high as a second in return, helping their effort to potentially move up in the draft in 2025 to get a quarterback. GM Tom Telesco and head coach Antonio Pierce are in rebuilding mode. And while they would like to win now, the Raiders also understand they need to add more talent to the roster to compete long-term with the Chiefs in the AFC West. The Jets get a No. 1 receiver in Adams, but there is no guarantee he will be there beyond this season.

Does Davante Adams actually fix anything for the Jets?

Vacchiano: Come on, don’t be a downer! Can’t you just be happy that the Jets are “all-in”? Don’t you think there are legions of Dallas Cowboys fans wishing Jerry Jones was this proactive?

No, acquiring Adams does not fix everything. It probably doesn’t even fix the Jets’ biggest issues. They are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL (11 on Monday night). Their defense isn’t what it used to be. The offensive line is shaky. There’s a lot more, too. But Adams can fix some glaring issues in the offense. One is that they are really having trouble scoring in the red zone. Against the Bills they scored one touchdown in four trips. Adams has been a red-zone and touchdown machine in his career. And Rodgers trusts him, which can only help in big spots. Also, with new playcaller Todd Downing, the Jets finally showed an ability to create room for Wilson and running back Breece Hall on Monday night. Those two talented kids combined for 276 total yards. Now defenses will have to focus on Adams, which could open things up for them even more. So this really could give a boost to a Jets offense that currently ranks 22nd in the NFL.

Williams: In the short term, Adams should help jump-start New York’s offense. He already has chemistry with Rodgers and should be key in situational football like third down and the red zone when the Jets need someone to step up and make a play. At 2-4, the Jets are just a game out of the final wild-card spot in the AFC and two games behind Buffalo in the AFC East. And with a talented defense, the Jets still have time to turn things around. 

McKenna: Yes and no. Zooming all the way out, the Jets fired their head coach and changed playcallers going into Week 6. And with Todd Downing taking over for Nathaniel Hackett, the Jets offense looked better. So that was step 1 to fixing the offense. Apparently, the arrival of Adams is step 2.

The Jets actually have a bigger issue at tackle, where Morgan Moses is having a slow start and Tyron Smith looks to have aged out of his prime. But the good news is that they have a solution on the roster: rookie Olu Fashanu, a 2024 first-round pick. If the Jets turn over one of those starting spots to Fashanu, they should see an upgrade on offense.

And then the Jets have invested a lot of money in their WR2 position and Allen Lazard has been surprisingly productive this year, with 26 catches for 354 yards and five touchdowns. It’s Garrett Wilson who has had some issues holding up as the No. 1 option, with 399 yards and three touchdowns. That’s where this could make life easier for New York. If Adams is ready to be WR1 again, it’ll open up things for Wilson at WR2 and even more for Lazard as WR3. And if the Jets can keep running the ball like they did on Monday night, then New York’s offense will be on the mend. The Adams trade doesn’t “fix” the Jets, who weren’t missing a receiver. But he absolutely upgrades them.

Where does Adams fit into an already deep Jets receiver corps?

Vacchiano: The first place he fits is right into Mike Williams‘ spot on the roster. That was obvious Monday night when the first thing Rodgers did at his postgame press conference was call out Williams for running the wrong route on the game-ending interception (What? You thought it was Rodgers’ fault?). Williams has done nothing with the Jets anyway, and they are better off riding with a Big 3 of Adams, Wilson and Allen Lazard.

Presumably, as soon as he’s up to speed on the playbook (and maybe even before that), Adams will emerge as Rodgers’ top target. Rodgers knows him, trusts him, and even though Adams is 31 years old, he does have the best résumé. It’ll be really interesting to see how that affects Wilson, who is a rising star and hasn’t always seemed to have a cozy relationship with his quarterback. He finally started to break out the past two weeks, catching 21 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers are likely to go down at least a little bit. It’s not clear how happy he’s going to be about that.

Williams: Adams replaces Garrett Wilson as the No. 1 target as soon as he puts on his uniform. Wilson is younger and more talented, but he has yet to earn the full trust of Rodgers. Adams and Rodgers are already on the same wavelength and should make big plays from Day 1. The odd man out appears to be Mike Williams, who has yet to regain his big-play form coming off ACL knee surgery.

Is it dangerous to kowtow to Aaron Rodgers like the Jets appear to be doing?

Greg Auman: It’s dangerous, but with a limited window around an aging first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, you have to do what you can to maximize that opportunity. Adams isn’t close to being worth what he’s due to make in 2025 and 2026, so this could be a third-round pick for 11 games, which is expensive unless it contributes to a deep playoff run.

From a long-term standpoint, it’s not a huge commitment. You’re doing this to placate Rodgers. If you have to keep Adams next season to keep Rodgers happy and unretired, it becomes a much larger (and less wise) investment. The Jets are 2-4, and it’ll take at least 9-8 to get into the playoffs, so the question is whether Adams can help them to 7-4 the rest of the way. They still have the Dolphins twice, the Patriots and Jaguars, so it’s within reach, if still unlikely.

Vacchiano: Sure, but there’s no going back now. I mean, giving Aaron Rodgers what he wants has been the Jets’ entire organizational plan for the past two seasons. Once you commit to that strategy, it’s hard to change gears in the middle of it.

It was always a huge risk to give in to his enormous ego and trust that he was as good a GM and coach as he was a quarterback. The Jets thought it was worth it to subjugate themselves because they thought there was a Super Bowl waiting for them at the end of Rodgers’ Rainbow. If there is, it’s all worth it. All it cost them was their self-respect, Robert Saleh’s job, and a lot of money for Rodgers and his friends.

But honestly, at this point, it would be more dangerous to NOT kowtow to Rodgers’ demands, whims or whatever. They need him happy and comfortable for this whole thing to work. Because if he’s not at his best and if he can’t recapture at least a hint of his old, MVP form, the Jets have no chance to climb out of this 2-4 hole. Plus, then they’d have to listen to him complain on some podcast, and really, haven’t we all had enough of that?

Williams: Owner Woody Johnson and the rest of the Jets’ brass have no choice. It’s what New York signed up for when they went after the enigmatic Rodgers. New York is all-in on Rodgers, so why not bring in Adams and give the 40-year-old quarterback the best chance of having success and chasing a Super Bowl?

McKenna: In for an inch, in for a mile. The Jets have no choice but to keep buying in on the Aaron Rodgers era, even as it continues to spiral. There’s a high likelihood that — when Rodgers leaves — the Jets roster will look like a toddler’s playroom after a bedtime tantrum. Toys strewn everywhere. Broken dolls and action figures. Missing legos, maybe one ingested.

Whether Rodgers is pulling the strings or applying pressure, he’s clearly a factor in their decision-making on personnel, from Lazard to Adams to Hackett to Randall Cobb. It’s a bit like LeBron James cosplaying general manager — it doesn’t end well. But New York signed up for this. The Jets brought in Rodgers (hopefully) knowing what they were going to get. And now, they have to go all-in on the final years of Rodgers’ career. This trade is yet another example of that.

What happens if none of this works for the Jets?

Vacchiano: They’re pretty screwed. On the bright side, they’ve got a lot of experience with that sort of thing.

Look, to borrow a phrase from Jerry Jones, the Jets were “all-in” on this Rodgers experiment and this season. Maybe — maybe — they can extend it another year and bring the old gang (and I do mean “old”) back for one last run. They do actually have most of their key players under contract at least through 2025.

Still, it’s much more likely they’re going to have to destroy everything they’ve built and try again. Douglas can’t possibly survive a sixth straight season without making the playoffs (especially since his record is 29-60). I mean, if his grand plan hasn’t worked yet, who is crazy enough to think it’ll all come together in Year 7?

So that means a new GM who isn’t going to want to be saddled with a 41-year-old, diminished version of Rodgers who has unchecked power and Woody Johnson’s ear. That’ll also mean another new coach (chosen by the GM, not the quarterback). And the new GM will want to at least draft a young quarterback for the future — and we all know how Rodgers loves that.

In other words, it’ll be a mess. And maybe worse than the usual Jets mess, depending on how the quarterback reacts.

Williams: The Jets already hit the eject button on head coach Robert Saleh. Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich and GM Joe Douglas are likely to follow at season’s end if the Jets do not make the playoffs. And the Jets can hit the reset button by hiring an experienced head coach to clean up the mess next season like Mike Vrabel. 

McKenna: What Eric said — and then there’s the matter of Rodgers’ future. He has said in the past that he planned to do two years in New York, which did not count the Achilles year. So in theory, he planned to play through 2025 and see what was next. But if this continues to go poorly, Rodgers might not want to stick around to see which coach takes over. He could retire and/or demand a trade. I think that’s partially where the Jets’ urgency comes from — they’re so invested in winning now with Rodgers that they would be devastated to lose him. Because if Rodgers is gone, you can bet Adams is gone, too. 

What does this trade mean for the Raiders going forward?

Auman: My question is whether this opens the door to Las Vegas trading Maxx Crosby to the Lions for a much larger package of picks. You have a better team with a sudden and more glaring need after Aidan Hutchinson’s season-ending leg injury, so if the Raiders are open to parting with an elite pass-rusher, they can reload in a big way. A first and a second? More? Las Vegas didn’t feel like a playoff team this season, with four losses all by double digits, including one to the Panthers. So you reset, and gaining picks makes it easier to get a starting quarterback out of the upcoming draft.

Williams: Pierce and Telesco have the Raiders at 2-4 in the AFC West. And while there’s certainly pressure on Pierce to compete for a spot in the postseason in his first full season as head coach, this year realistically is about evaluating the roster and figuring out a strategy for the long haul that leads to sustainable winning. And for the Raiders, that means finding the long-term answer at quarterback through free agency, trade or the draft. Getting rid of Adams’ salary from the books and getting some draft compensation will help Telesco and Pierce in that effort. 

The following writers contributed to this story: Greg Auman (@gregauman); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano).

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