When the NFL season began in early September, there was likely no one pointing to Washington Commanders vs. Baltimore Ravens as a pivotal game.
Now, it’s arguably the most intriguing matchup in the NFL Week 6 odds.
Washington looks great behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, while Lamar Jackson and Baltimore appear back on track after losing their first two games.
“It was not on my Bingo card that Ravens-Commanders would be the game to watch this week. But here we are,” Caesars sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
ADVERTISEMENT
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on a handful of games, as we dive into NFL Week 6 betting nuggets.
Beltway Battle
Washington lost its season opener at Tampa Bay, but is now 4-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Daniels and the Commanders hope to stretch their winning streak to five games at Baltimore.
Meanwhile, the Ravens opened the season 0-2 SU and ATS, but won their last three to stand 3-2 SU and ATS. Baltimore was -7 vs. Washington on last week’s lookahead line at Caesars, but has been at -6.5 since Sunday night.
“I think this is definitely the Game of the Week,” Feazel said. “We’ve seen some of that Jayden Daniels money come in, so we’re at 6.5. It’s Commanders spread money coupled with the moneyline.”
Feazel noted the move from Ravens -7 to -6.5 was in part due to sharp money on Commanders +7. And the moneyline of Washington +235 is attractive to the public betting masses. A $100 bet would profit $235 (total payout $335) if the surging Commanders win outright in Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
NFL Rocks On FOX
Highlighting FOX’s slate of Sunday NFL games: Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys, at 4:25 p.m. ET. Detroit has been at -3 most of this week, but spent some time Monday into Tuesday at -3.5 (even).
“The Cowboys are really struggling to get things going. So we’re seeing Lions money come in, coupled with the Under,” Feazel said. “I’m sure we’ll get some Cowboys money. But it’s a new reality here.
“Bettors are really homing in on this Lions team. I expect we’ll need the Cowboys come kickoff.”
Cowboys will win NFC East, CeeDee Lamb did not say ‘subpar’ to Dak Prescott
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is rolling with his NFL plays over the past three weeks, going 7-1. In Week 5, he went 2-1, backing Chicago -3.5 in its rout of Carolina, and Houston +1 vs. Buffalo, while losing on the Los Angeles Rams +3 vs. Green Bay.
McKay is involved with Lions-Cowboys this week. He pointed to last season’s meeting, also in Dallas, which the Cowboys won 20-19. McKay took Dallas +3.5 and said he’d still recommend the Cowboys at +3.
“The Cowboys were -6 last year, and now they’re an underdog above a key number,” McKay said of his bet at +3.5. “I definitely could see a chaotic back-and-forth game here. Micah Parsons’ injury status will be big here.”
Parsons (ankle), Dallas’ standout edge rusher, didn’t play last week and as of Wednesday night is questionable for Week 6.
One more McKay wager:
- Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: “It’s the ugly underdog of the week,” McKay said of the home team. “This is a bounce-back spot for the Raiders, after gift-wrapping that game in Denver last week. Both quarterbacks are equal for Las Vegas (Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell), so I’m not worried about it against a Pittsburgh team that struggles on offense. We could see a close game and Las Vegas grinding out a victory.”
NFL Quick Hitters
Feazel also had thoughts on another FOX matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints, at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.
The Saints opened -2.5 (-120), but as news developed about QB Derek Carr’s oblique injury, the spread jumped the fence. Caesars moved to Buccaneers -2/-2.5 on Tuesday morning, then -3/-3.5 on Tuesday evening.
“The line flipped 6 points,” Feazel said. “Obviously, we’re seeing bets come in on the Bucs here. But I’m not really high on Carr. Whether it’s Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler, I think the Saints can be competitive.”
On Wednesday evening, New Orleans announced rookie Rattler as the starter.
One more from Feazel:
- Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets: Coach Robert Saleh was fired by the Jets on Tuesday, but the impact on odds was nominal. Caesars opened this game at Bills -2.5, briefly went to -3 on the firing news, returned to -2.5, then Wednesday went to -2. “There’s usually a bump in money when the coach gets fired. We have seen an influx of Jets money. We’re also seeing some Under money, which makes sense. If you’re taking the Jets, you’re not expecting a shootout.
Herd Hierarchy: Cowboys return to Top 10, Commanders move to Top 5 in Week 6
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Per usual, the bulk of big-money bets on NFL Week 6 has yet to arrive. But Caesars Sports has already seen a couple of low-six-figure wagers:
- $110,000 Jets +2.5 vs. Bills. To win $100,000 (total payout $210,000)
- $110,000 Titans +1 vs. Colts. To win $100,000 (total payout $210,000)
The Colts are banged up, with QB Anthony Richardson, running back Jonathan Taylor and wideout Josh Downs all questionable, and wideout Michael Pittman Jr. doubtful.
Because of that, Tennessee is now a 2.5-point home favorite, rather than a 1-point home underdog. So the high roller got the best of the number there.
We’ll follow up after the weekend to see if this customer ultimately gets to the pay window.
Enjoy the NFL weekend!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
recommended
Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more