2024 College Football picks Week 11: Back Oregon to start fast, Iowa to cover

If you’ve been following my analysis, then you know that I love to find good spots to wager on Oregon. 

Before I played lineman in the NFL, I played for the Ducks. So I’m always pumped to rep my squad with a smart bet. Even more exciting is that Oregon ranks No. 1 in the first College Football Playoff reveal.

But my Week 11 picks go beyond Eugene. I’m also looking at Colorado and at an Iowa team whose offense might be better than you think. 

Let’s get into my best bets for this week!

(All times ET)

Saturday, Nov. 9

No. 20 Colorado @ Texas Tech (4 p.m, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Colorado’s offense cannot be stopped when the Buffaloes are playing a team like Texas Tech. 

Home or road, it has not mattered against teams that do not hit the passer or have the ability to cover Colorado’s wide receiving options. While Texas Tech’s defense played better in a road win against Iowa State, the Red Raiders do not profile to stop Colorado. 

They rank 107th in defensive points per drive, 127th in pressure rate (how many times they get to the quarterback) and 115th in havoc rate (TFLs, pass deflections, forced fumbles). Quite simply, they rarely force the opposing offense into mistakes or missed points. Tech allowed 35 to TCU two weekends ago and 59 to Baylor before that game. 

Colorado’s offense, namely the passing unit, is elite. Shedeur Sanders has been good, and Travis Hunter is amazing. The Buffs also have other receiving targets who are difficult to guard. The main four targets all average at least 12.6 yards per reception. 

The Buffs scored 34 against Cincinnati in their last game, 34 against Arizona and 48 against a UCF team that has close to the same numbers as Texas Tech. 

I’ll take Colorado’s team total Over 33.5.

PICK: Colorado team total Over 33.5 points scored

Maryland @ No. 1 Oregon (7 p.m., BTN)

Oregon is the best team in the country. 

The Ducks don’t have many weaknesses and tend to play specific types of games. They get out to an early lead and then shut it down. They are third in the country in first-half points, averaging just a tick under 24. Their defense ranks 25th in the country in the first half, as well, at just under 10 points per game. The Ducks also average just 3.8 points per third quarter. And when they’ve been winning by multiple touchdowns at halftime, they tend to just shut it down on purpose. 

So let’s wager on that. I’m going to take Oregon to cover the first half against Maryland. 

Maryland is off a bye, so it’s possible the Terrapins have some juice. But they do not run the ball well nor generate explosive plays. That does not seem like a winning combination on the road. 

Maryland’s defense ranks 77th in points per drive with barely a pulse on its defense line. On offense, Maryland’s offensive line allows pressures and ranks 81st in havoc rate allowed. Just a bad matchup for an Oregon team that starts fast. 

So Oregon -14.5 for the first half. 

PICK: Oregon -14.5 1st half

Iowa @ UCLA (9 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

Did you know Iowa has an offense in 2024? Iowa is 45th in points per game and 28th in rushing yards behind Kaleb Johnson’s 7.52 yards per attempt this season. Johnson has almost 1,300 yards in just eight games. 

Iowa made a switch at quarterback, going with Brendan Sullivan. He’s younger, better with his legs and has an arm that’s got more zip on the ball. It’s changed the offense for the better. The Hawkeyes offense also ranks 31st on third down because they win more first and second downs, allowing for easier third down conversions. Iowa’s defense is a tad worse than usual. However, it still ranks 10th in points per drive and is excellent at limiting explosive plays.

UCLA’s offense was bad for the first month of the season but has picked up lately. The Bruins scored 35 on Rutgers and dropped 27 at Nebraska. The offense is very much guided by quarterback Ethan Garbers and you can’t be one-dimensional against Iowa’s defense. UCLA’s rushing success rate ranks dead last in the country, and the Bruins are not great on third down. 

Their defense is good at limiting explosive plays, but down-to-down, they are just OK. They’ve also faced Rutgers and Nebraska in recent weeks, and Iowa is far better on offense than those teams. 

I also like the coaching matchup for Iowa on a short week. 

UCLA’s first-year head Deshaun Watson has never had to coach on a short week before and Iowa will be better prepared. UCLA is also 121st in the country in penalties per game; Iowa is fourth. 

I like Iowa to win and cover.

PICK: Iowa (-6) to win by more than 6 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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